BJP’s caste census move entangles Congress, deepening divisions within the opposition and reshaping narratives.
NEW DELHI: BJP has always had an upper hand in planning and is well-versed with strategies to trap the opposition. The next strategy that BJP has implemented is playing the caste consensus card, and Congress seems to be getting entangled in this very trap. While the party is celebrating this decision as a major achievement, branding it as a result of Rahul Gandhi’s insistence and showcasing it as proof of his leadership for the backward classes, it may ultimately find itself alone on this front. This is because the party’s allies also see caste-based politics as their core strategy—something they are unlikely to give up easily. By organising a Working Committee meeting and crediting Gandhi, Congress is attempting to portray him as the true leader of the backward communities. However, what the party seems to have overlooked is the timing of the government’s announcement. Over the past 11 years, Congress has failed to grasp a fundamental trait of the Modi government: it doesn’t make decisions without strategic calculation. Whether it was demonetisation, GST, the abrogation of Article 370, triple talaq, the construction of the Ram Mandir, the amendment to the Waqf Act, or now the caste census—each of these moves was executed with foresight, primarily benefiting the nation and, in turn, the BJP politically. Key among these were the scrapping of Article 370 and facilitating the Ram Mandir construction, along with surgical and airstrikes—all of which were historic steps in the national interest. Although the opposition criticised demonetisation and GST, the public supported Modi’s government again, effectively validating those decisions. The new Waqf Act also presented the BJP with a strong polarising opportunity, from which it is expected to benefit electorally in many states. However, before the effects of this bill could fully unfold, a major terrorist incident occurred in Pahalgam. The government appeared to be under some pressure due to the lack of an immediate military response this time. Yet, looking at the past, we can anticipate that in Modi’s style, retaliation will likely come in his own way—decisively and historically. The opposition may not even see it coming. In the meantime, Modi has thrown a curveball by announcing the caste census, a move that is likely to cause internal conflict within the opposition. A scramble for the mantle of “backward leader” is expected. Historically, the politics of backward castes began with the formation of the Mandal Commission under the Janata Party in 1977, but after the government fell, Congress returned in 1979 and stayed away from caste-based politics. Even after coming to power, two Congress Prime Ministers shelved the Mandal Commission’s recommendations. When V.P. Singh implemented them in 1989, the country witnessed widespread violence, ultimately leading to his resignation. Since then, leaders like Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Sharad Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan, Kanshi Ram, and Mayawati emerged as leaders of the backward classes. Congress lost ground in several states. While no backward caste leader gained prominence at the national level, many achieved regional power. The BJP managed to suppress caste politics in North India using its Hindutva agenda and returned to power. Regional parties, however, clung to their backward caste politics. After two consecutive general election defeats, Congress and Gandhi finally abandoned their anti-caste posture and embraced caste politics three years ago. But this shift hasn’t yielded significant gains, either in state elections or in the 2024 general elections. Still, Congress continues to rely on caste-based politics, believing it’s the only way to divide the consolidated Hindu vote under the BJP’s Hindutva umbrella. However, Modi’s declaration of a caste census has now dragged Congress into a leadership race over the backward class narrative—a race it didn’t anticipate. This will directly impact the I.N.D.I.A bloc. Leaders like Akhilesh Yadav (SP), Tejashwi Yadav (RJD), Mayawati (BSP), Arvind Kejriwal (AAP), and other regional players have all built their identities around backward caste politics and won’t tolerate Congress encroaching on their turf. These parties gained power by taking over Congress’s traditional vote base. If Congress now tries to use backward caste politics as a weapon, these regional players will oppose it. The BJP stands to benefit directly from this division. Congress may find itself in a dual crisis: alienating upper castes while also failing to secure assured support from the backward classes. Additionally, the party is already tangled in the politics of Muslim appeasement due to the Waqf Act, making its position even more complicated. While the Modi government has only made t h e a n n o u n c e m e n t for the caste census, the actual execution timeline remains under its control. Meanwhile, the government also has to respond to the Pahalgam terrorist incident. Modi appears to be strategically manoeuvreing the opposition. Core issues affecting the common man have faded from the political discourse, while the opposition remains stuck between the Waqf Act and the caste census—both deftly used by Modi to divert and divide.