Poll outcome to impact future politics

The outcome of the Assembly polls in five states would have wide ranging ramifications for all political parties, but shall impact the future of both Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath and his principal challenger, Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party.
If the BJP is able to retain its control over UP, Yogi would automatically be in line for the top leadership role in the saffron brigade in the post Narendra Modi era. However, if he is unable to get a clear majority for his party, he may perhaps have a diminished role in the affairs of the state.
There are several RSS functionaries who are predicting that the BJP shall be near the majority mark which effectively means that if the government is formed through defections or with the aid of other parties, Yogi may not be the CM. In that case, a more acceptable face to the possible allies may emerge and occupy his position.
Supporters of the Samajwadi Party are extremely confident that the baton for the state’s leadership was going to certainly change on 10 March. This would propel Akhilesh Yadav to the centre stage of national politics. This would imply that any future federal front against the NDA would have him as one of the pivots, being the leader of the largest and most populous state and a second time CM. Politics is a lot of ifs and buts and therefore to state things with finality is never easy.
In Yogi’s case too, he shall be a second time CM if the BJP wins comfortably and thus would perhaps overtake a lot of others who are in the succession line in the party. Many years ago, just after the BJP suffered the defeat in the 2004 Parliamentary elections, Pramod Mahajan was asked whether he would be a contender for PM-ship in 2009. Without hesitating, he had replied that in 2009 it would be Advaniji who shall lead the party into the Lok Sabha polls. He hastened to add that every politician’s dream is to occupy the highest position and he shall certainly try for it in 2014. He was of the view that in order to come up to that level, he shall have to overcome the internal party challenge from Modi, who was then the Gujarat CM. However, fate willed otherwise and he died shortly after that.
As things stand today, Modi continues to be the tallest political leader in the country and is certainly going to be the spearhead of the BJP in the 2024 campaign as well. The struggle within the saffron brigade is for the next in line where Yogi, Nitin Gadkari and Amit Shah all could be contenders besides many others.
For Akhilesh Yadav, he would be happy to return as the Chief Minister of his state but obviously being a political animal, he would look for a larger role subsequently. He is unlikely to pit himself as the opposition choice against Modi with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee perhaps being the leading contender for the challenge.
The impact of the UP result in particular would be felt even during the President’s election slated a few months from now with Ram Nath Kovind about to complete his tenure. Thus, if the BJP has to have a candidate of its first choice, it would be important to have UP in its pocket. Otherwise, it shall have to settle in for a nominee who has acceptability even amongst some of the parties opposed to the BJP.
The Congress is very optimistic that it shall perform well in four of the five states other than UP where it may struggle to even get into double digits. However, the UP polls have propelled Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to a larger leadership role within her own party. The result would hardly have any effect on the internal dynamics of the Congress where the Gandhis shall continue to call the shots.
It shall be important for the party to win in at least two states in order to keep its relevance intact so far as national affairs are concerned. Rahul Gandhi has already commenced his preparations for the next round of Assembly polls and is touring various parts of the country. The G-23 may comment on the election results but other than that they shall not be able to change the way the party is functioning.
The Assembly elections also provide probably the last chance for someone like Harish Rawat to be the CM of his state again. In Punjab, if the Congress wins, Charanjit Singh Channi would be the next CM but internal squabbles are not likely to end very soon. Goa may see yet again, a government formed on the basis of defections and the story of Manipur may not be any different.
These polls are also the last round of elections that are being contested by Captain Amarinder Singh, Parkash Singh Badal and Rajinder Kaur Bhattal. They have all had glorious innings in the past and may like to win one last time in order to have a dignified exit from the political arena. But politics can be very cruel as well and does not always provide a happy ending.
The exit polls as usual may not necessarily provide an accurate picture of things to come. Therefore, one has to wait for the final result to know reality and the future trajectory of Indian politics. Between us.