NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just returned from a very productive visit to the UK and the Maldives. In the UK, the new FTA (described by Prime Minister Keir Starmer as the most important trade deal the UK has signed since Brexit, the formal break with the EU which became operative on 31 January 2020) gives promise of substantially increasing India-UK trade. The security protocol that was signed during the visit is intended to ensure that threats to India are dealt with in the UK, and India will work against threats to the UK in India. As for the Maldives, the reset in relations from distant to close is good for both countries, as also for the security of the Indo-Pacific from a predatory power.
Meanwhile, the US trade delegation seeking to come to India for discussions on an FTA have been politely asked to postpone their visit to August, as the gap on both sides is too large to be bridged at present. All this is taking place in the context of the twists and turns of US policy, which appears often to reward foes at the expense of friends of the US. How long such a course will be followed by President Trump remains a matter of conjecture. He seems obsessed with making (short term) gains for the US at the expense of allies and friends no deal is viable in the absence of both sides coming back with tangible gains.
An obsessive focus on selfinterest may often become counter-productive, and so it is proving for President Trump from a national security standpoint. When known satellites of China such as the army in Pakistan are being given deferential treatment at the cost of the respect of friends such as India, something is amiss. Doubts about the reliability of the US as an ally while the country is under the leadership of President Trump are gaining amongst US allies and partners, to the benefit of China under Xi Jinping. A 360-degree view of overall US interests rather than a far narrower perspective is what is needed, and President Trump being a fast learner, the anticipation amongst his well-wishers is that he will alter course sooner rather than later. So far, there are no signs of that happening.
Meanwhile, he is facing increasing headwinds at home. Getting the “big beautiful” Trump budget passed may result in more Republican lawmakers rebelling against his diktats, or to the Democrats regaining control of the US House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 midterms. President Trump has survived many efforts at besmirching his reputation, and there is scant reason to believe that disclosure of the Jeffrey Epstein files presently in the custody of the US Department of Justice will in contrast succeed. Along with the permitting of access to the Epstein files (of course with the names of the minor victims of Epstein redacted in order to protect their names) should be a plea bargain involving Ghislaine Maxwell, the British lady who appears to have been an accessory to the wrongful actions of Epstein. Learning the information known to her about the conduct of Epstein, a full and truthful disclosure of the truth by Maxwell, would be a better alternative than keeping her in prison. By seeming evasive on the subject, the US President is only feeding the appetite of his detractors for harrying him still more than they already have.
By his hesitation and apparent unwillingness to agree to full disclosure of the Epstein files, all that President Trump is achieving is to further fan the flames of rumour and gossip concerning his role. Releasing selective portions have proved to be ineffective in quelling the scandal, and opening the possibility of yet another effort at impeaching President Trump, this time during Trump 2.0. And unlike in past attempts, this time around the effort may succeed in deposing President Trump. When loyalists of the calibre of Steve Bannon are turning on Trump, it is a sign that the MAGA base of support he has till now enjoyed is beginning to diminish as a consequence of his hesitancy in giving assent to full disclosure of the Epstein files.
Scurrilous scandals spread about him have not been strangers to Trumpworld, and he has survived all of them politically stronger. Full disclosure is only a matter of time, for more and more Republican lawmakers, for reasons of political survival, have begun calling for such a course. Far better that they be released now by President Trump, rather than have the initiative snatched from the Executive to the Legislative branch of the US Government. And as for matters concerning security, President Trump needs to return to the policies that won him back the White House: fight terror and efforts by an authoritarian power to dominate the Indo-Pacific.
At the same time, he needs to ensure that the Ukraine war is ended, perhaps by the taking over of the Presidency of Ukraine by a realist such as Valerii Zaluzhnyi in place of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is opposed to any policy other than the disastrous line of seeking to win back territory lost to the control of Kiev in 2014, after the Maidan regime change operation succeeded. India under Prime Minister Modi is and will be a steadfast partner of the US in the securing of the Indo-Pacific. The country does not merit efforts at seeking to strongarm the most populous democracy in the world into a trade deal that would prove ruinous for the most powerful player in the IndoPacific after China, namely India.
