New Delhi: Lead negotiator Piyush Goyal appears to have returned to New Delhi with the outline of what the United States expects of a trade deal. Were a deal to take place, that would go a long way in setting back India-US ties on the constructive track they were prior to the tariff controversy. Elsewhere in this edition, it has been pointed out how hopefully there seems a strategy behind the seemingly erratic actions of President Trump. Assisted by Vice-President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others in the top tier of the Trump administration, President Donald Trump has been preparing the US for the possibility of a kinetic conflict with the competing superpower, China.
Were the CCP-controlled People’s Republic of China to achieve its longstanding goal of surpassing the US in GDP and in global influence, it would be a disaster for not just the US but other democracies as well, notably the most populous, India. Given the irreconcilability of their objectives, the US to retain its primacy and China intent on replacing it, a sudden eruption of existing flashpoints could trigger a kinetic confrontation between the two superpowers despite what the White House seems to be favouring. In such a situation, it is obvious that India would prefer the US to China as the winner of the superpower contest. Indeed, India has been locating rare earth, fossil fuel and other essentials of the modern economy through the foreign tours of Prime Minister Narendra Modi assisted by his key lieutenants. In PPP terms, India has the third largest GDP in the world, and is poised for higher growth than even the impressive rates the country has achieved during Modi 3.0.
Across the world, China has been providing succour to countries hostile to the US, Venezuela being an example geographically close to the US. It is no accident that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is reported to have planned a meeting of all his leading star officers, clearly to indicate to them the need for preparedness in a world where, once again, US primacy is being challenged in the way it was during Cold War 1.0 with the Soviet Union. President Trump is not a “war” President, but neither was Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who nevertheless led his country ably once it was attacked by the Axis powers during 1941-45. President Trump and his ably chosen Vice-President J.D. Vance are committed to the US winning Cold War 2.0 as well.
One by one, the US is weakening countries close to China, a mission which will continue. At the same time, the US has been focusing on trade deals with its partners, including India. In talks, PM Modi and his negotiating team have made clear that were the maximalist demands of US tariff hawks to be accepted, the result would be a catastrophe for the farm sector that would hopelessly weaken India, a country essential for the US winning Cold War 2.0 within the global arena. Absence of agreement would seriously compromise the US in the ongoing hybrid confrontation with China, a confrontation all the more real despite occasional soothing rhetoric from both sides. Whether a deal will come about or not depends in large part on the White House.
In both India as well as the US, covert efforts (including through social media) are being made to create fissures in the societal fabric and cause violence. Both democracies have succeeded in quelling such manufactured dissent, and will continue to do so. Whether in the recent eruption of kinetic conflict with Pakistan triggered by the Pahalgam terror attack by the military of that country, or in assisting Venezuela to fend off US pressure to abandon its facilitation of fentanyl shipments to the US, China has been active helping the other side withstand US pressure. The CCP is determined to avenge the “Opium War” of over a century back by filling the US with narcotics through the instrumentality of criminal gangs. Canada and Mexico have been unwitting hosts to such gangs, although action is now being taken by both Prime Minister Carney and President Sheinbaum against them. Hybrid war has become the instrument of choice for the CCP and its subalterns, as has become clear to the intelligence agencies of both the large democracies, India and the US. The jury is out on whether the White House will continue to ignore such facts or ensure ties are reset with India in particular.
Were Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and his US counterpart to secure a trade deal acceptable to both sides, it would be of immense geopolitical significance. Once again, the most populous and the most powerful democracies would be fully in sync in ensuring a “free, open and inclusive” Indo-Pacific, to quote the words of PM Modi at the Singapore Shangri-la Dialogue. Both sides have been working hard, and analysts hope that the contours of a mutually acceptable trade agreement are close to finalisation. As part of the process of dealing with higher tariffs, an intense process of reform is taking place in India, including within the tax and regulatory structures, to make them more citizen friendly and business friendly. A trade deal would herald the return of the warm relations established by President Trump and Prime Minister Modi from the start of their present jobs as Head of Government. On several other fronts the India-US partnership remains on track, as it needs to be for the benefit of both sides.
Punitive measures against India, such as high tariffs on pharmaceuticals, would push up healthcare costs in the US and erode the popularity of the US President. The two countries need to work in a seamless partnership so as to serve the interests of their populations. A US-India trade deal would mark a significant step forward in such an essential process, but will the White House agree is the query uppermost in strategic circles in both countries. Should it persist in its present policy of hostility towards India, should the Democrats take back the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, the next time around, he will not be accused of being a Russian agent but a Chinese plant. President Trump, beware the 2028 US Presidential polls.
