Even as Congress is gearing up to contest the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu in alliance with the DMK and in Kerala under UDF, it is keeping a close eye on the preparations being made by the AIADMK, the BJP and the LDF and other new parties including the Vijay-led TVK.
Sources in the Congress said that despite the DMK not having formed a negotiation committee yet, the grand old party may get at least 30 to 32 seats in Tamil Nadu, marginally up from the 25 it had contested in the 2021 Assembly elections.
The source claimed that the DMK wanted to contest at least 170 seats while leaving the rest for its alliance partners, even as the Left parties, which had won four seats in 2021, have put forth a demand for at least 10 seats.
A Congress insider said that latest surveys show that there is no visible anti-incumbency against the ruling DMK in the state even as AIADMK is yet to kick off its poll campaign, with Vijay’s party creating a lot of buzz among the youth and the women of the state.
A party insider mentioned that while the AIADMK being a cadre-based party will have an impact in its strongholds, their performance will largely depend on the extent to which Vijay’s TVK makes inroads into AIADMK vote share.
Similarly, the source pointed out that actor turned politician Vijay, who has formed his party TVK, is aiming to get 15-18% vote share, but much will depend on the candidates he announces. Unless Vijay manages to field strong faces against the DMK, TVK’s chances look bleak. He also pointed out that the DMK has been delaying the negotiation committee as it will form it just one or two months before the polls giving less time to alliance partners to bargain for seats.
The source said that the Congress would face a litmus test as its cadre base is small. He gave the example of Kanyakumari Lok Sabha constituency, where Congress had won three to four Assembly seats in 2021. But it will face challenges there as Vijay’s influence can be seen there. “But we are hopeful that the Congress will manage to win the seats in alliance,” he said.
While commenting on the preparations in Kerala, the party insider highlighted the latest survey which projects the Congress-led UDF emerging as the winner, with the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government facing massive anti-incumbency.
When asked if the BJP, which for the first time has won the Thiruvananthapuram municipality, will be able to put up a good show in Kerala, he said, “The BJP will dent the votes of the LDF, especially from the community from which the Chief Minister comes.”
Vijayan comes from the Ezhava community, which is classified as other Backward Classes and comprises 27% of Kerala’s population.
Meanwhile, the insider pointed out how the Congress’s MNC (Muslims, Nairs and Christians) support base could help it win the elections in the state. He said Muslims account for around 24% of the population, Nairs about 16%, and Christians also form a significant share, all of whom are likely to favour the Congress.
Explaining the arithmetic, he said that due to its alliance with the IUML, the Muslim vote will largely remain with the Congress. He also cited prominent leaders from the Nair community such as Shashi Tharoor, Ramesh Chennithala and V.D. Satheesan.
The source added that Tharoor’s recent meeting with the party high command, including Mallikarjun Kharge and Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi, has dispelled speculation of any rift within the party.
“These factors will play an important role in Kerala, where the Nair community votes are considered crucial,” he said.
He further explained that the Christian community is unlikely to back the BJP and that a large section may move away from the LDF.
When asked whether the Congress was considering any alliance with Vijay’s TVK in Kerala, party sources categorically ruled it out, calling such a move “suicidal.”
The source said Christians, Muslims and Nairs are traditional Congress voters and are already consolidated, adding that banking on a superstar’s fan base would not help the party and could instead alienate core supporters. He added that this view was also reflected in a recent survey, where the idea was rejected by the majority of respondents.
With Assembly elections scheduled in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry, Assam and West Bengal this year, the Congress is pinning hopes on the southern states, where it believes it has a strong chance of returning to power.
