New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to contest around 105 seats in the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, with significant churn expected in its candidate list.
Of the total 243 Assembly seats in the state, the BJP had contested on 110 seats in the 2020 elections, with the remaining going to JDU (110), Viksasheel Insaan Party (11) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) (7).
Party leaders told The Sunday Guardian that at least 20 sitting MLA are under active consideration for changes, while in another ten, the BJP is unlikely to renominate those who lost in 2020. Sitting MLAs who are over 70 years of age or whose victory margin was less than 3,000 votes are also under the scanner.
Anti-incumbency and caste arithmetic, always at the heart of Bihar’s politics, are shaping much of the decision-making.
Informed sources said that what is complicating the BJP’s calculations is the rise of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, which has begun making an impact on the ground and is seen as adding another layer of unpredictability to an already delicate social coalition.
The BJP’s managers admit that the contest is too close to call, despite the bravado being projected by local leaders at different levels.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah has taken direct charge of the campaign. Aware that a loss in Bihar would carry national political ramifications and hand the opposition a potent message, Shah is monitoring every stage of preparation. Sources said that he is scheduled to be in Patna on September 18 and again on September 27 to review the feedback from state leaders and push through changes in ticket distribution and campaign strategy.
While doing exceedingly well at the national level when it comes to electoral results, the BJP has not got the same result in the crucial state even as it has managed to come to power in an alliance with Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar.
In the 2015 elections, the party lost despite deploying its top leadership, which had virtually shifted base to Patna’s Ashoka and Maurya hotels during the campaign.
The 2020 election was another hard grind: though the BJP increased its tally from 53 to 74 seats, it suffered a loss of nearly 5% in its vote share. Its ally JD(U), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, fared even worse, falling by 28 seats—from 71 to 43—with a decline of 1.44% in vote share. The alliance won 125 seats, just three more than the magic figure of 122 seats and scraped through to form government, but the results underlined the fragility of the mandate and the limits of central intervention.
That backdrop makes the current election all the more critical. Anti-incumbency against the Nitish Kumar government is stated to be strong and the BJP is suffering with a significant handicap of not having a charismatic state leader.
Party leaders said that, in the end, it would be the face and appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi that would prove to be the deciding factor.
