‘Regime change unlikely even if Iran loses top leaders’ (Image: X)
Israel and the United States launched on Saturday what is increasingly looking like a decapitation operation, to eliminate the top leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the target being the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei. According to Israeli media reports, the assessment of their military is that the missile attacks on Khamenei’s office complex may have injured Iran’s Supreme Leader, but there is no confirmation on this yet. The Israeli military also believes that Iranian Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammed Pakpour have been killed. Apart from them, several IRGC commanders also are believed to have been killed in the joint strikes by Israel and the United States.
This is in contrast to the earlier strikes on Iran by Israel, both towards the end of 2024 and in 2025. At the time, on the radar were Iran’s military facilities, nuclear installations and economic interests including the energy sector, and Iran’s symbols of government—as reported by this newspaper. But the latest operation—named Operation Epic Fury by the US and Operation Lion’s Roar by Israel—to a large extent, appears to be directed at the Iranian government, including military officials.
Israel had successfully decapitated the Hezbollah leadership in 2024, by dismantling its command and control structure, where the terrorist group’s layers of leadership, including its topmost leader Hassan Nasrallah—who, ironically, was treated like a son by Ayatollah Khamenei—were taken out. But it’s uncertain if a similar strategy will be successful in this case, given the target this time is a well-entrenched national government, with its own military and all the instruments of state power at its disposal.
Also, the elimination of the Hezbollah leadership may have quietened Israel’s neighbourhood to an extent, but has not neutralised the existential threat that Israel still faces from Hezbollah and other proxies of Iran. Israeli experts describe Iran as the head of the octopus, with Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, etc as its tentacles. Now that the tentacles have been damaged, if not destroyed altogether, it is the head of the octopus that Israel is going for, with assistance from the US. Israeli experts have been telling this newspaper that Israel would never take on the Iranian leadership without American help and coordination to contain the fallout. And now that help and coordination are both available to Israel.
But the question is: will this result in a regime change in Tehran? Unlikely, say most experts. In fact, a Reuters report claimed on Saturday that a recent CIA assessment is that even if Khamenei is killed, he is likely to be replaced by hardline IRGC figures. It also must be noted that neither Israel nor the US has any plans for having boots on the ground, and without boots on the ground, it is impossible to ensure a regime change in Tehran. But will the Iranian public, long oppressed as they have been by the clerics and the military, rise up in revolt against the government—which is what President Donald Trump has been asking them to do—or whatever remains of it after this war is over, whenever that is?
While speaking to this newspaper, Dr Lauren Dagon Amoss, an India expert in Israel, said that Israel was not pushing for a regime change. “The Iranian regime has put its own survival above the wellbeing of the Iranian people. (Hence) it will be the Iranian people’s decision. Israel will keep the message limited, and focus on security.”
“The Iranian regime has continued to advance and expand its nuclear and ballistic missiles programme, which threatens Israel. The state of Israel is taking action against the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile threat and is not acting against the Iranian people,” she added.
Hence, the latest round of attacks is largely about degrading Iran’s capabilities, including weakening the leadership—both civil and military. But if that will eventually lead to a regime change in Iran, is a matter of speculation at this present juncture. A lot will depend on how long the strikes continue and how extensive they are.
