New Delhi: By launching a full scale assault on Venezuela in the early hours of January 3, US President Donald Trump has lit the fuse for a war he will find difficult to contain. It was clear from the start of his initially verbal and thereafter kinetic attacks on Venezuela under Maduro that what Trump sought was the immense oil and mineral deposits of Venezuela, including plentiful unmined resources of rare earths. As for oil, impartial analysts claim that Venezuela has the largest oil deposits of any single country in the world. President Trump has ensured US weapons manufacturers have profited hugely from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, by getting the Europeans to pay for the supply of US weapons “peacemaker” Trump gives to Ukraine. Trump claims in an X post that US Marine commandos have captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife and brought them back to the US. Given that Maduro has been a longtime ally of Russia and China, were he and his wife captured by US forces, it would be an intolerable loss of face for CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping and the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. They would need to ensure that the Armed Forces of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela have the means necessary to bring down US military aircraft, and in extreme circumstances attack one of the many US battleships that are plying close to the Venezuelan coast. Were the US Administration to succeed in its mission of securing access to Venezuelan mineral resources through the planned replacement of Maduro, Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, it would be a setback to Chinese and Russian interests throughout South America. Even Mexico will need to condemn the US for its actions, with the spectacle of President Trump trying to mimic President James Monroe well over a century later. Monroe began the process of subjugating South America through toppling their governments and installing US puppets in their stead. It is ironic that the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize would owe her installation to a war launched against her country by President Trump, of whom she has been among the most fulsome of supporters. Indeed, the Chairman of the committee that awarded her the prize went public that Maduro should quit and hand over power to Machado—somewhat uncharacteristic behaviour from the head of the Nobel Peace Prize committee.
President Trump is vulnerable not just for his campaign promise of ending wars and instead ushering in a period of peace. Were the armed forces of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to cause multiple casualties of US forces, Congressional disapproval of the resultant body bags would be immediate. Other South American leaders, whose memories of the period of subjugation of their respective countries by the US remain fresh, would find it imperative to oppose such US actions. Were they not to do so, they would face the contempt and opprobrium of their people. Mexico has long moved away from allowing memories of the US land and loot grab of their land, and have become a close trading partner of the US. However, President Gloria Sheinbaum will need to condemn the actions of her US counterpart or risk triggering the anger of the proud Mexican population. As for Brazil, President Lula will condemn the actions of the US under Trump, not least because Trump will not care that he was a lawfully elected Head of State and Government, and will include him in the list of those South American leaders marked by the White House to go the Maduro way. President Lula Inacio da Silva has long been a critic of Trump, something which annoys the US President immensely. Instead of such a surgical strike on the Maduro regime, the US could have spent money and effort fomenting public unrest against Maduro, so that a street revolution occurs that brings down the Venezuelan President from within. Ironically, by his kinetic moves, Trump may have caused a sympathy wave for his foe in Venezuela at a period when street unrest was easy to provoke because of the failing economy and falling real incomes of the people. Instead, he is likely to have unified South America against the US led by him, with the possible exception of Argentina.
Not just regional but global geopolitics has been upended by President Trump, who by his intemperate actions has revealed an out of control mind. Were Xi, even more than Putin, to allow his country to remain a bystander while Trump takes over a Chinese ally by force, even a captive Central Committee would be forced to get Xi to respond to the provocations of Trump by ensuring that the Armed Forces of Venezuela be given the means to hit back against the new regional bully. Memories of the Century of Enslavement of the Chinese people are still fresh in the public mind. Gunboats did much of the bullying and enslaving of China then, as they are doing to Venezuela now, over a century later. By his intemperate kinetic actions against Maduro, who was undoubtedly a dictator, Trump may have begun a war that he cannot for much longer have control over. Were China and Russia to challenge Trump in South American waters, it could lead to the World War III scenario that Trump used in his Presidential campaign to attack Biden and Harris. Such an outcome would lead to a piling up of body bags, including those of US citizens. It was by the infamous “body count” of feckless generals such as William C. Westmoreland it made sure that President Lyndon Baines Johnson became too unpopular to attempt a run for another term in the White House. Chants of “Hey, hey LBJ, how many babies did you kill today?” became too numerous for Johnson to bear. The new war begun by President Trump, who promises to “end all wars” has let the genie of circumstances leap out of the vessel that had contained it. A contrite, perhaps condemned, Maduro would not suffice to entice the genie back into Aladdin’s lamp.
If the Ukraine war and its attendant consequences so upended economies across the world, Trump’s war on Venezuela is likely to have far worse consequences. Leaders across the world will need to put on their thinking caps and figure out how to keep their countries calm in a period of turmoil caused by President Trump. The Venezuela story has way to go before it reaches a climax, and the scenario caused by its ignition will take a while to evolve. Trump hopped onto the bus of war, but getting off that bus will prove exceptionally difficult. All that the wary, watching majority of countries can do is to try and minimize the damage to themselves by Trump’s war on Venezuela.
