If the BJP wins, it will establish itself as such a formidable national force that no other party will be able to pose a serious challenge to it until 2029
The election results for West Bengal, scheduled to be announced on Monday, will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the country’s politics. Whichever party emerges victorious will inevitably influence the national political landscape. If the BJP wins, it will establish itself as such a formidable national force that no other party will be able to pose a serious challenge to it until 2029. Conversely, if the TMC wins, Mamata Banerjee could emerge as a new alternative within national politics, potentially posing a challenge to the NDA. Mamata’s rise could even disrupt the NDA’s political equations, potentially landing the BJP in a difficult situation.
If the BJP does indeed win in West Bengal, it is certain that the road ahead for the opposition will become extremely arduous. Political analysts believe that following the setbacks faced in the 2024 general elections, the BJP realized that while development is important in its own right, keeping the issues of Hindutva and nationalism alive is essential for winning elections—particularly because the opposition is focused on fueling caste-based politics.
By leveraging issues such as illegal immigration alongside its Hindutva agenda, the BJP appears to be successfully navigating the complexities of caste-based politics. In Bengal, the BJP prioritized the issue of illegal immigration, a strategic choice that effectively turned the election into a contest defined along Hindu-Muslim lines. The opposition was ensnared right from the start in the BJP’s trap regarding the SIR (Social Impact Report) and the issue of infiltration.
The first experiment was conducted in Bihar, where SIR proved to be a resounding success. The opposition in Bihar attempted to turn the SIR into a contentious issue, but this strategy backfired. The discourse on infiltration spread to Maharashtra, Haryana, and Delhi as well. The BJP secured impressive victories in all three states.
The BJP has now undertaken its most significant experiment regarding infiltration in the Assam and Bengal elections—an endeavor that appears to be succeeding. However, the full extent of its success will only become clear on May 4th. The BJP remains confident regarding the outcomes in Bengal and Assam.
The BJP’s primary focus and interest lay specifically in the elections in West Bengal, Puducherry, and Assam. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, its strategy was limited to ensuring that the Congress-led alliance did not emerge victorious.
Based on the exit polls and incoming reports from all five states, it appears that the BJP may have succeeded to a large extent. But if the BJP were to lose Bengal, the challenges facing the party would multiply.
As political observers suggest, following a victory, Mamata could potentially shift her focus toward national politics. With the exception of the Congress, the entire opposition bloc could potentially rally under her banner. Given her stature as a prominent female leader and a member of the Brahmin community, Mamata could emerge as a formidable challenge for the BJP in the run-up to 2029. Mamata’s political approach stands apart from that of other opposition leaders.
In any case, as of today, the opposition lacks a leader who engages in politics round the clock. Figures from the Hindi belt—such as Rahul and Akhilesh Yadav—are essentially part-time politicians. The political influence of leaders like Lalu Yadav and Sharad Pawar has become merely nominal. Arvind Kejriwal, for his part, has effectively sidelined himself.
Under these circumstances, if Mamata emerges victorious and decides to turn her focus toward the Centre, a “Third Front” could very well come into existence. The Congress party has actively attempted to defeat Mamata in Bengal; consequently, the rift between the two sides has widened significantly.
Rahul Gandhi appears unable to grasp the shifting dynamics of the country’s political landscape. Furthermore, the leaders surrounding him are merely keeping their own political careers afloat through sycophancy.
These elections will serve as a major test for his closest associates—including Organization General Secretary K.C. Venugopal, General Secretary Jitendra Singh, MP Gaurav Gogoi, Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister D. Shivakumar—as well as his sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. If the Congress fails to secure a respectable majority—or falls short of the mark—in Kerala, Venugopal will be deemed a complete failure as a leader.
The situation in Assam has also landed the Gandhi family in deep trouble. From day one, the Congress party in Assam found itself on the wrong track. Rahul Gandhi’s decision to place his bets on Gaurav Gogoi—the Deputy Leader in the Lok Sabha—is now being viewed as a major blunder. Furthermore, the decision to dispatch Priyanka Gandhi and D.K. Shivakumar to assist the relatively inexperienced state-in-charge, Jitendra Singh, has also proven detrimental. A crushing defeat now appears to be looming over Congress.
As for Tamil Nadu, the party founded by film actor Vijay has created complications for the DMK. Anything could happen there.
