US attack on Venezuela may push Brent crude to $65, analysts say. Here's the impact on global oil prices and why India is likely to remain unaffected.
Crude Oil Prices Set to Jump as US-Venezuela Conflict Fuels Supply Fears (Image: File)
NEW DELHI, January 5 — Global crude oil prices are likely to see a sharp increase when trading begins on Monday, analysts say, following a U.S. military strike in Venezuela that captured former President Nicolás Maduro. The attack injects major geopolitical uncertainty into a region holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves.
On Friday, Brent crude futures closed below $61 per barrel in quiet trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) finished above $57. That calm is expected to shatter at Monday’s open. “The US attack on Venezuela is expected to trigger geopolitical tension in the region, which is expected to fuel the uncertainty. Hence, I expect a gap-up opening for gold, silver, copper, crude oil, gasoline, and other commodities,” said Anuj Gupta, Director of Ya Wealth.
Gupta forecasts Brent crude could immediately jump to test levels of $62 to $65 per barrel.
Venezuela holds over 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves—the largest globally—accounting for roughly 17% of the world's total. This surpasses Saudi Arabia's reserves. However, years of crisis and U.S. sanctions have crippled its output, which now hovers near 1 million barrels per day, down from historic highs.
Some experts link the conflict directly to this resource. “The reason behind this attack is to ensure safety of the petro dollar regime,” said Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital. He pointed to Venezuela's past challenge to the dollar-dominated oil system and President Trump’s stated intent to control the country's oil reserves.
India is likely to be insulated from direct energy impacts, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). Once a key buyer, India has drastically reduced Venezuelan oil imports due to U.S. sanctions.
A: Not directly. While global crude price spikes push pressure on domestic fuel rates, Indian state refiners have mostly stopped importing Venezuelan crude since 2019 because of sanctions. The immediate impact depends on whether global benchmark prices continue to rise.
A: Venezuela is home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, OPEC estimating them at over 300 billion barrels.Most of this unused resource lies in the Orinoco Belt region there.
A: No, but trade is minimal. India's main exports are pharmaceuticals, and imports, primarily crude oil, have fallen sharply. The ongoing conflict is not expected to significantly alter India's energy supply matrix.
A:A 'gap-up' occurs when the opening market price is noticeably higher than the previous day’s close, creating a gap on the price chart. It generally happens in reaction to important overnight news.
