NEW DELHI: Women may now have to endure a long wait for the 33% reservation. On Friday, the NDA government failed to secure the two-thirds majority required in the Lok Sabha to pass a bill amending the 2023 legislation. Consequently, the bill was defeated.
However, prior to the vote, the government had—late at night—notified the 2023 Women’s Reservation Act to ensure that the outcome of the vote would have no adverse effect on the law itself. Had the government not taken this step, the legislation would have lapsed following the defeat of the amendment bill. Experts suggest that a secondary reason for notifying the original bill was the procedural requirement that amendments to a law can only be introduced after the said law has been formally enacted.
Therefore, in a hurried move during the night of April 16-17, the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (Women’s Empowerment Act) was immediately notified. This implies that while women are guaranteed 33% reservation in the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies—come what may—this provision will not be implemented during the 2029 general elections.
As Union Home Minister Amit Shah stated in the Lok Sabha, the delimitation exercise—which follows the new census—is expected to take two to three years to complete. Consequently, the reservation cannot be brought into effect by 2029. Although the caste census might be completed by 2027, the subsequent delimitation process is a time-consuming undertaking. Therefore, the government had intended to amend the law to facilitate its implementation in 2029.
According to Shah, there exists a specific formula for increasing the total number of seats by 50%—a method designed to ensure that no discrimination is meted out against the Southern states. Under this formula, the number of seats allocated to the Southern region would rise from 129 to 195, thereby preventing any perceived bias.
Sources indicate that, following the shelving of the bill, the implementation of women’s reservation will inevitably have to wait until 2034. The year 2033 is being cited because Prime Minister Narendra Modi may choose to realize his “One Nation, One Election” agenda in 2033 rather than 2034. This is because, by that time, only a few states—such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh—will remain whose elections are scheduled to take place within six months prior to the completion of the Lok Sabha’s five-year term.
Under our constitutional framework, it is permissible to conduct elections ahead of schedule, though not after the scheduled date. Consequently, there would be no impediment to holding the Lok Sabha elections six months early, concurrently with the state elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
Sources further suggest that the government could enact the “One Nation, One Election” policy into law by 2028. The Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC), chaired by MP P.P. Chaudhary, is expected to submit its report to the government by the end of next year.
As for the question of how many seats will be increased, the government will deliberate on this matter once the results of the new census are available. Current indications suggest that the “50% formula” is the approach most likely to be implemented, as it represents the only viable middle ground. Were this approach not adopted, the number of seats in the Hindi Belt states would increase, while those in the southern states would decrease.
The government will make a final decision based on the prevailing circumstances at that time. Notably, the government had—quite deliberately—incorporated a provision for a 50% increase in the constitutional amendment itself. In his address, BJP MP Nishikant Dubey explicitly stated that basing seat allocation solely on census data would lead to an imbalance among states, causing a disadvantage to the southern states; it is for this reason, he noted, that the government has decided to implement a uniform 50% increase in seats across all states.
