Jury is still out on what the US gained from the summit and whether it was at all needed.
The much talked two-day trip of President Trump to China took place on May 14 and 15. That the cause for it happening was more American than Chinese, had been obvious for weeks beforehand. The exuberance and the hubris which in the past, had preceded and accompanied the China visits of the Presidents of USA had been missing right from the beginning.
The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had let it be known that President Xi Jinping would be bringing upfront the issue of Taiwan’s independence and the hitherto contentious role of USA in supporting it. Ab initio, the Chinese did not share the importance which President Trump accorded to trade and technology related matters. More than once, the US side had talked of persuading the Chinese to import more US agriculture goods, oil and Boeing aircraft. In exchange, Trump was willing to permit Chinese investments into USA, sign a durable tariff deal, and sell it a certain number of advanced chips.
CHINA, NO LONGER EASY MEAT
The less than enthusiastic Chinese attitude was an outcome of a variety of evolving circumstances and new perceptions. A significant one being that despite its vastly superior military arsenal and prowess and its unfettered use in the ten-week-long war against Iran, the US had got bogged down in the war despite the repeated claims by Trump and his supplicants about wiping out Iran’s air force, missile bases, nuclear processing facilities, oil fields, refineries and civilian infrastructure. No portion of the heavily ravaged Iran stands captured by US forces. In fact, the residuary Iranian forces were still able to reach missiles and drones on targets in the Gulf countries perceived to be pro US. Also, it retains control over navigation in the critical Strait of Hormuz despite the 200-odd heavily armed US frigates and destroyer ships being around. More importantly, the remnant Iranian leadership have refused to accept the repeated US offers for a meaningful ceasefire, reiterating its right to making nuclear weapons. Seeing their geopolitical enemy USA remaining entangled in a hugely expensive war, must be gratifying for both China and Russia.
China’s greater confidence in itself has emerged from its rapid military and economic progress, particularly during the tenure of President Xi beginning March 2013. It has modernized and better equipped its large army, acquired a naval armada as large and lethal as USA’s, and through own designing and manufacturing efforts, built a sizable sized state-of-art air force. With its deep pockets, it constantly updates and expands the military hardware including the sizeable arsenal of nuclear weapons. Without a doubt, a military conflict with it would no longer be a cakewalk for anyone including the Americans.
Alongside, China has survived the Covid-19 pandemic without any lasting scars. It has coped well with global, regional and national economic cycles while effecting progress in dealing with climate change, technology development and incorporation, industrial robotics, semiconductors, electric vehicles and now AI. It no longer prefers to remain the factory of the world. Instead, it gets the items of mass consumption made elsewhere while itself concentrating on value additions using technology, rare skills and other inputs. Poverty has sharply declined. Continuous building of transportation and other infrastructure, modernizing agricultural practices, healthcare delivery and education, particularly vocational, have stood it in good stead for effecting the sustained wellbeing of its large population.
China’s economic ascendancy came to be recently demonstrated in the way it had pushed back against Trump’s tariffs imposed a year ago. It flexed its muscles and choked the global availability of rare earths and magnet making and interrupted manufacturing in the US and elsewhere. This had made the US agree not to effect any tariff increases for a year during which a trade deal could be negotiated. Thereafter, it has continued to display remarkable resilience in technological self-sufficiency despite US export controls. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has come in handy to grow the dependence upon it of countries across Asia, Africa and South America. It has successfully converted several nations having commercial relationships with it into allies in international matters. On the other hand, the number of US allies has rapidly dwindled. The 77-year-old NATO military alliance is tottering because of Trump and his cohorts’ repeated gaffes and glitches. Prolonging of the war in the Middle East would reconfigure the groupings of nations there as well. Loss of allies was evident from an American President making a trip to China without stops in allied countries for prior consultations with its allies. This was for the first time since 1998. Both the Russians and the Chinese would be eagerly awaiting more such self-goals.
The Chinese leadership would wait for the US mid-term Congressional elections in autumn before it seriously engages with the Americans. That Trump’s endeavours to sell larger volumes of soybeans and beef to China is to appease his significant voter base in the agri-rich Midwest had also been known to it. With several things not going Trump’s way, losing of the Republican control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate also cannot be ruled out. With a lurking possibility of the pact negotiated with Trump not being durable, the shrewd Chinese negotiators must be hesitating to open their hand at this juncture.
SUMMIT 2026, LADEN WITH PLATITUDES AND LIGHT IN CONCRETE OUTCOMES
During Trump’s visit, the host Chinese did not compromise on display of mutual camaraderie, pomp and pageantry. In the very opening remarks, a session which was open to the press, Xi had called for the two countries to be “partners and not rivals”. Responding, Trump had termed the personal relationship between them as “fantastic”. The two heads spent extended time together in interactions, two meals and going around the private garden inside Zhongnanhai, where the Chinese top leaders stay and work and a space Xi rarely shows to foreign visitors.
That having said, the several differing priorities and sensitivities about the issues discussed and agreed have come to the fore. As per the Chinese handout about the discussions on the first day, Xi had appealed for a “new positioning” centred on “cooperation, healthy stability with competition within limits and manageable differences with expectable peace”. The American readout did not refer to any of these and instead focused on deliverables like expansion of access for the American businesses to the Chinese market, and China buying more American oil and agricultural products and summed up the meeting as “good”. The American note completely missed out the Taiwan issue. As per the Chinese brief, President Xi had called Taiwan as the most important issue in the Sino-US relations and warned Trump to use caution while dealing with it. Also, while the White House handout indicated broad alignment of Xi with the American position of keeping the Strait of Hormuz free and without tolls, besides agreeing that Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons, the Chinese version only said that they “exchanged views over major international and regional issues”. These included the situations in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine and issues regarding the Korean peninsula but without any elaboration.
At the end of the second day, the two sides seemed to have been more aligned in their pronouncements and neither side issued a press note. On board Air Force One carrying the American team back home, President Trump, while claiming that “a lot of good has come of it”, admitted the taking place of lengthy discussions on Taiwan, the Chinese appeal not to sell more arms to it or support its independence. He conceded no discussions were held on tariffs and that deals to sell 200 Boeing jets, more agri-products and US oil had been struck. He also claimed that agreements had been reached to set up separate Boards of Trade and Investments. President Xi, without going into specifics, observed that “both sides should implement the important consensus reached, cherish the hard-won positive momentum, stay on the right track to eliminate interference, and promote the stable development of bilateral relations.” The Foreign Minister Wang confirmed that the tariff talks would follow at the appropriate levels.
Even without the yet-to-come detailed briefs on what was discussed or agreed to, it is apparent that the summit was high on optics and low on deliverables. At most, it has set a new frame of reference for China for dealing with the US. In any case, it is apparent that in all future dialogues it would be imperative to treat one another more equally and ensure that the competitive dynamics do not spiral out of control.
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Dr Ajay Dua, a former Union Secretary, Commerce and Industry, is a development economist by training.
