Never before in recent history has the world witnessed so much churning as in the last four years. The scenario around India too is no exception with unexpected developments taking place both in India’s west and east.
For India, a credible threat from the eastern flank, namely from once a very friendly neighbour, Bangladesh, is gaining in intensity. Since the ouster of its pro India Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, the political environment in Bangladesh is rapidly becoming highly radicalized, with killings of its minority Hindu population becoming rampant and anti-India sentiment rising.
That Pakistan and to some extent, China, are both deeply involved is apparent since the last one year with high-level reciprocal visits to Dhaka by Pakistani ISI and senior Army officers. That China is speedily expanding its footprint in Bangladesh, especially in areas of trade and connectivity is also very obvious.
The recent visit by a highly fundamentalist Muslim ideologue of Indian origin, currently settled in Malaysia, Zakir Naik to Dhaka conveys ominous tidings for India. Since Shaikh Hasina’s replacement by their Army by Nobel Peace Laureate, Muhammad Yunus, the otherwise secular nation is indulging in endless measures with its anti-India acts. It thus appears that an anti-India axis is firmly taking shape between China, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Such anti-India strategies will have a bearing on India’s restive Northeastern states which now prompts India to take additional security measures in these states and along the international border with Bangladesh from where illegal migrations, smuggling of cattle and drugs etc is an age-old practice. Importantly, India must redouble its security measures in its highly vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, which is the only land-link between India’s Northeast and India’s hinterland and borders Bangladesh.
Reliable media reports have suggested that Yunus had the temerity to present his visitors with a map of a Greater Bangladesh which included some parts of India’s Northeast and West Bengal. Such ludicrous acts need to be strongly condemned by the Indian government and Bangladesh warned to desist from such acts or be prepared to face reprisals. An idea also troubling the minds of some analysts is that somewhere our “strategic partner”, the United States too is involved in these anti-India activities to keep a growing India in check.
Bangladesh appears to traverse the wrong path by its anti-India stance and is ignoring geo-political realities and all that India has done for it to ensure its independence from their genocide inflicting West Pakistani brethren in the late 60s and 70s. Bangladesh, by ignoring its geography and its post 1971 relations with India, is displaying uncalled for recklessness for which it will suffer in the years ahead unless it gets back to cooperation with India.
Their Yunus-led interim government is distinctly leaning towards China, as Beijing, in the short-term, offers quick cash, connectivity projects and military hardware without bothering about the recipient nation’s human rights or corruption oriented track record. However, in the long run, the recipient nation gets sucked into a debt trap. Bangladesh should learn from the Sri Lankan experience of Hambantota being financed by China, and even Pakistan’s financial problems with its Chinese mentors regarding the Gwadar port.
Bangladesh should look at its friendly neighbour India’s track record in coming to its aid frequently whenever that impoverished nation has faced crises. It needs to adopt a strategy of “calibrated equidistance” from China, US and Pakistan, while restoring its multifaceted links with India. We also must endeavour to solve our water sharing problems especially of the Teesta river with Bangladesh.
New Delhi will have to take suitable measures to influence Dhaka not to fall into any trap being set for it by any nation. Meanwhile, additional security measures to thwart Chinese or Pakistani mischief on India’s east will have to be taken with alacrity.
The author is a leading strategic analyst.
