Trump’s instinct to leverage alliances as bargaining tools against China undermines the very deterrence they are meant to provide. Alliances are not poker chips. They are the scaffolding of U.S. power and credibility in Asia.
The durability of America’s alliances in Asia has long been the bedrock of regional stability. Yet President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy risks reducing these alliances to bargaining chips in negotiations with Beijing. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines are not expendable assets; they are sovereign partners whose security guarantees form the architecture of the Indo-Pacific order. To treat them otherwise is to invite instability, embolden China, and erode U.S. credibility worldwide.
Since the end of World War II, U.S. alliances in Asia have been designed not merely as military arrangements but as political commitments. The 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security transformed Japan into a cornerstone of U.S. strategy, ensuring maritime stability in the Pacific. In South Korea, the 1953 Mutual Defence Treaty guaranteed deterrence against North Korea, while embedding Seoul in a broader U.S. security framework. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, though unofficial, codified America’s commitment to Taiwan’s defence and democratic survival. The 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty with Philippines secured America’s access to critical sea lanes in the South China Sea. These alliances were never conceived as transactional chips to be traded for concessions. They were strategic investments in a rules-based order.
Trump’s instinct to leverage alliances as bargaining tools against China undermines the very deterrence they are meant to provide. If allies believe U.S. commitments are negotiable, they may hedge by accommodating Beijing or pursuing independent nuclear capabilities. China would interpret wavering U.S. commitments as an invitation to press harder in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, or the Senkaku Islands. Allies in Europe and the Middle East would question whether their own security guarantees are similarly negotiable, weakening U.S. influence across continents.
Each ally plays a unique role in the Indo-Pacific balance: South Korea deters North Korea and anchors U.S. credibility on the peninsula. Japan provides unmatched maritime capacity and hosts critical U.S. bases. Taiwan is both a democratic beacon and a technological powerhouse in semiconductors. Philippines controls access to the South China Sea, a vital artery of global trade. Together, they form a lattice of deterrence that prevents China from achieving regional hegemony.
The U.S. needs to reaffirm commitments by publicly and unequivocally stating that U.S. defence treaties are non-negotiable.
The U.S. should also deepen military integration—expand joint exercises, interoperability, and intelligence sharing to signal resolve. It should build supply chain partnerships with allies to reduce dependence on China. It should also frame alliances as mutual commitments rooted in shared democratic values, not transactional deals. It needs to strengthen multilateral forums like the Quad and ASEAN to embed alliances in a broader regional architecture.
Alliances are not poker chips. They are the scaffolding of U.S. power and credibility in Asia. To treat South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines as bargaining tools against China is to dismantle the very architecture that has preserved peace for decades. The United States must reaffirm that its commitments are ironclad, not negotiable. Only then can Washington deter aggression, preserve stability, and uphold the democratic values that distinguish its partnerships from Beijing’s coercive model.
- Khedroob Thondup, nephew of the Dalai Lama, is a geopolitical analyst.
