India for decades have zealously guarded and promoted its strategic autonomy in this multipolar world. Now the very same has been under strain and question, thanks to tensions with China, trade and tariff tantrums with an unpredictable Trump (USA) and not to mention its turbulent neighbourhood. Time has come for India to make a difficult choice and overcome the dilemma as to which side it should pivot. The much-touted strategic autonomy that remained at the heart of India’s foreign policy discourse is now under test. It is time for New Delhi to revisit its foreign policy in this fast changing and volatile times with changing alignments and emerging realignments that are shifting the global balance of power. This calls for a calculated pivot towards either the US-led western order or towards Russia-China led nexus. Both bring opportunities as well as challenges for India’s foreign policy. Therefore, India’s manoeuvring of its foreign policy in this chaotic and tumultuous world order needs deep reflection and reinvention.
On one hand India did not outrightly condemn the attack by Russia on Ukraine but at the same time gave signals to the West about its partnership with them to strengthen the international liberal order, examples being its cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, Quad, negotiating trade agreements, etc. At the same time, India is also participative in the China- and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), it is also a founding member of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), BRICS etc. While analysts believe that India must continue to walk the tightrope, treading the delicate path between US and its allies on one hand and with Russia and China on the other, it can no longer merely sit on the fence. What New Delhi calls its “strategic autonomy”, thereby exhibiting “strategic ambiguity”, the rest of the world interprets and criticises it as “strategic convenience”. Nations, particularly in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific, often find India’s positions ambiguous. While India has deep strategic ties with Russia which are reliable, and time tested. But over the past two decades, India made immense strides to strengthen its relations with the US and Europe. India’s foreign policy should seek convergences through its pivot to either side instead of tactical conveniences. This calls for realism and bold decision making in its foreign policy and alignment to either or in coming times.
The unpredictable Trump presidency has disrupted the US approach of “strategic altruism” towards India. Trump has imposed 50% tariff on Indian imports, among the highest on any country. Half of that penalty is for India’s purchases of Russian oil during its ongoing war with Ukraine—something that the Biden administration encouraged India to do to keep global crude prices under control. Meanwhile, China, which buys more Russian oil than India, has received a reprieve from high US tariffs for now, as Washington negotiates a trade deal with New Delhi. In the background of ambiguous signals from Washington, it is but obvious that New Delhi will have to make a broader shift away from the USA and forge new partnerships and simultaneously revisit its difficult relations with China and its neighbouring countries. Although China remains its strategic competitor for India, both sides have shown maturity to redress their issues through diplomatic channels. It is in this context the visit of PM Modi to China for the SCO summit and his meeting with Xi Jinping was a signal in that direction.
If India pivots towards the Russia-China led sphere of influence, we could see the revival of the merely symbolical Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral mechanism, further strengthening of SCO, BRICS and other alliances in the Global South, spearheaded by this partnership. On the contrary, if we pivot towards Washington-led allies including EU, Japan, Australia etc, that gives us wider access to the developed markets to further our trade, technology and economic relations. India is, therefore, in a dilemma as to where, when and how to pivot as we witness the rebalancing of global power. Whether it pivots towards east or west, it will have to overcome this dilemma sooner than later. India’s foreign policy must avoid this “strategic drift’”. In the absence of strategic clarity and longterm objectives, its foreign engagements are susceptible to shifting political winds and lack of institutional vision.
As the global balance of power evolves and India emerges from a middle power to superpower in a decade or two. For the time being, it will have to make a strategic and pragmatic pivot, not to align itself with one or the other bloc, but more so to as a tactical response that serves its self-interest and self-reliance that augurs well for its present and future economic growth. This will eventually give it strength and vision to navigate a fragmented and chaotic multipolar order.
Dr Mohit Anand is Professor of International Business and Strategy at EMLYON Business School, France. Rajesh Mehta is a leading consultant and columnist working on market entry, innovation and public policy.
