After a lot of initial hesitation, the Bharatiya Janata Party led Central government has decided to go ahead with the Caste Census, a demand which the Congress has been making for the past several years. In doing so, the Saffron Brigade could have gotten into dangerous territory that could eventually harm its interests.
It is evident that the decision to go ahead with the caste census has been taken keeping the forthcoming Bihar Assembly elections in mind. The Saffron Brigade’s detractors say that it could also be because, the ruling dispensation wishes to divert attention from the colossal intelligence failure which led to the massacre of innocents in Pahalgam last month.
Whatever, may be the factor, the BJP seems to have walked into a trap which could prove to be counter-productive if all does not go well. The idea of Caste census is completely political but is in the estimation of many analysts, against the core ideology of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh. The Sangh has always been for unifying the Hindus and this action would lead to their division on the basis of communities, which would overall weaken the basic objective of consolidating the Hindus under one platform.
The Congress has been demanding a Caste census purely out of its new found belief that it is a weapon that would lead to the dilution of the Hindutva agenda, and as it did in 1991 when Vishwanath Pratap Singh introduced the Mandal Commission, empower certain sections which have been marginalized over the years.
It should be recalled that when Mandal Commission was implemented by the then government, it had a serious fallout which led to the end of VP Singh whose action was solely based on his own political survival. Although LK Advani, declared his Somnath to Ayodhya Rath Yatra unilaterally without getting the approval of the RSS, it was aimed at unification of the Hindu community.
The Mandal Commission implementation had two immediate consequences. The BJP survived the crisis and leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav, emerged stronger even as VP Singh could never regain his stellar position after that. It was the end of the Prime Minister who had managed to come to power after challenging the might of the Congress and whose 11-month tenure was certainly not a very distinguished one.
Many BJP opponents feel that the Central government may have announced the implementation of the Caste census but it may not actually happen when the time comes. It is more of a political stunt which would be over once the Bihar Assembly polls end. However, what needs to be understood is that the declaration may permanently damage the BJP so far as its upper caste vote base is concerned.
The Saffron Brigade has remained in power since 2014 largely because it has had the backing of all upper castes. This could change in the same manner as things transformed after VP Singh’s decision to implement the Mandal Commission. In 1989, when the Congress lost power, it was because the upper castes, particularly the Rajputs stood behind VP Singh. However, after the announcement of the controversial commission, VP Singh’s vote base was eroded, benefitting leaders like Lalu and Mulayam as also the BJP.
Now if the BJP implements the caste census, it shall find that the upper castes may not take kindly to it. In fact, the RSS too may find it difficult to keep the flock together. So far, the BJP has gained because the upper castes have stood with it and it has managed to split the OBC votes to its advantage. The announcement could lead to hostility amongst the upper castes.
The Congress which has never had the advantage of getting the OBC votes in the past, shall benefit by default and may find some of the upper caste communities returning to its fold. There is no empirical evidence as yet to suggest that this may necessarily happen, but it is natural for the castes that reject the BJP to find themselves a new political party to back. This is where the Congress may benefit by default.
The grand old party has also suffered because of the change of its support base. Ever since the late Sanjay Gandhi shifted his preference from the Brahmins to Rajputs after the fall of the Janata Party government, the Brahmins, who were Congress loyalists were in two minds. They finally frittered away towards the BJP over a period of time and the Congress was left without any upper caste votes since the Rajputs too shifted loyalty towards VP Singh.
It is possible that the Brahmins may now return to the Congress, much to the disadvantage of the BJP, which shall henceforth struggle to keep itself in power. The Mandal Commission implementation had met a lot of opposition in the urban areas and in places like New Delhi, youth had come out on to the streets to express its resentment.
It can be recalled that in the capital, there were clashes between the pro-Mandal and anti-Mandal groups which led to the fall of the VP Singh government, particular after the then Delhi University Students Union president, Rajiv Goswami, immolated himself outside the Deshbandhu College.
Things may be difficult even now. Caste census may be aimed at getting social justice but it shall also lead to social tensions which the ruling dispensation may find difficult to cope with. The political cost is what would ultimately shape future politics. .