China’s decision to supply Pakistan with eight advanced submarines is not just a defence deal—it is a calculated geopolitical manoeuvre that deepens South Asia’s fault lines and entrenches Pakistan as Beijing’s maritime proxy against India.
China’s transfer of eight Hangor-class submarines to Pakistan, valued at nearly $5 billion, is one of the largest defence deals in the region’s history. The first of these submarines is expected to be inducted by 2026, with all delivered by 2028. These vessels, equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems, will significantly enhance Pakistan’s ability to operate stealthily in the Arabian Sea, extending its reach and complicating India’s naval calculus.
At first glance, the deal appears to be a straightforward arms sale. But in reality, it is a strategic investment by Beijing in Islamabad’s military posture, designed to counterbalance India’s growing naval dominance. India operates a far larger fleet—over 150 vessels with more than 50 under construction. China’s move is meant to ensure Pakistan remains a credible irritant to India, tying down Indian resources in the Arabian Sea and preventing New Delhi from projecting power further into the Indo-Pacific.
This submarine deal must be understood in the broader context of the China-Pakistan nexus. Beijing has long used Pakistan as a strategic hedge against India, from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to joint military exercises. By arming Pakistan with advanced undersea capabilities, China is effectively outsourcing part of its contest with India to a willing partner. Pakistan, in turn, gains prestige and deterrence, but at the cost of deepening its dependency on Beijing.
The implications for India are stark. While New Delhi retains naval superiority, the introduction of eight Chinese-built submarines will force India to divert attention and resources to anti-submarine warfare, surveillance, and coastal defence. This is precisely the friction Beijing seeks to engineer: a proxy confrontation that drains India’s strategic bandwidth.
For Pakistan, the submarines symbolize both empowerment and entrapment. Empowerment, because they bolster its naval punch against India. Entrapment, because they bind Pakistan’s security architecture ever tighter to China’s strategic orbit. In effect, Pakistan becomes the maritime extension of China’s rivalry with India, a proxy whose role is to keep India hemmed in its neighbourhood rather than free to act in the wider Indo-Pacific.
The deal also raises questions about stability in the Indian Ocean. Submarines are not defensive assets; they are tools of stealth, surprise, and deterrence. Their deployment increases the risk of miscalculation, particularly in a region already fraught with mistrust. The Indian Ocean, once seen as India’s strategic backyard, is now becoming a contested space where China and Pakistan seek to challenge India’s dominance.
In the end, China’s submarine gift to Pakistan is less about Islamabad’s needs and more about Beijing’s ambitions. It is a deliberate act of proxy empowerment, designed to sharpen India-Pakistan tensions and ensure that India’s rise is checked at sea as well as on land. For India, the challenge is not only to maintain naval superiority but also to recognize that Beijing’s strategy is to fight indirectly—through Pakistan—while keeping its own hands clean.
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Nephew of the Dalai Lama, Khedroob Thondup is a geopolitical analyst.
