By declaring the campaign committee for the Kerala Assembly polls slated for April, the Congress has given rise to speculation regarding its Chief Ministerial face. As of now, no one is to be projected for the position, and the nominee would be finalized once the poll results are out and the picture is clear.
Kerala is the most literate state in the country and has had a tradition of rotating strike so far as power is concerned. However, the last time, it was the Left Democratic Front led by CPM’s Pinarayi Vijayan, the sitting CM, that retained power, thus breaking this cycle. In other words, the LDF won both in 2016 and 2021 thus preventing the Congress-led United Democratic Front from wresting power.
There is a section in the Congress which believes that the announcement of the campaign committee, which has Ramesh Chennithala as the convener and Shashi Tharoor as the co-convener, has been constituted to ensure that the decks would be cleared for the elevation of Rahul Gandhi’s principal adviser K.C. Venugopal to take over as the CM, in the event of the party winning.
Congress politics has many layers and the mere declaration of the campaign committee cannot be construed as a decision regarding who the CM would be. There are multiple leaders in the state who can be entrusted with the position including Venugopal, Ramesh Chennithala, Shashi Tharoor, the PCC president Sunny Joseph and any of his predecessors. The focus to begin would be to first secure a majority and then leave the final decision on the high command.
There is also a view that Venugopal is indispensable so far as Rahul Gandhi was concerned, and when the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, who has been successful in putting the Central government on the defensive, needs him the most, he would like to be relieved of his current responsibilities.
It is true that there has been a talk of change of overall leadership of the party and Mallikarjun Kharge, who has not been keeping good health, could opt out and the Congress may have a new president, much younger and more in tune with how Rahul Gandhi thinks. Several names are doing the rounds but till the deed is not done, nothing can be said with certainty.
So far as Kharge goes, the final decision would be his own and he cannot be pushed out unless he wishes to leave his position. His name has also cropped up on some occasions during the Karnataka tussle which is ongoing between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy D.K. Shivakumar. The CM is in no mood to leave and Shivakumar has been making a strong pitch for himself, which may not succeed, given the hold Siddaramaiah has over various segments in the state. If he is compelled to give up, he may not go down without fighting and could even split the party, in which case, Shivakumar may not become the CM.
The acceptable formula which is often spoken about is to send Kharge as the CM for the interim period. However, if he is not in good health and unable to discharge his functions as the Congress president, how would he fare as the CM, a post which needs equal attention and alertness?
There are many other names in Karnataka but if the agreement which Shivakumar has often talked about is to be implemented, then it would become very difficult for the Gandhis to explain why the Deputy CM did not get his due. Such an arrangement had been also made in Chhattisgarh between Bhupesh Baghel and T.S. Singh Deo. But the high command did not keep its word. The Congress leadership should be able to do what it promises. Otherwise, there is no point in getting two contenders to enter into an agreement, which amounts to tiding over a crisis at one stage but later is breached in both letter and spirit.
The Congress, for the first time, appears to be in election mode and Rahul Gandhis’s aggressive attack on the government could help its campaigns in the various states, particularly Assam and Kerala to begin with. It is getting clear that within the party, Rahul has once again established himself as the most influential leader, though Priyanka also has a way of reaching out and connecting with people. So far as the high command is concerned, it has to understand that unless the organization is strengthened, it would never be easy to take on the robust structure and the might of the BJP, which continues to win one election after the other through better strategy and more focused approach to politics.
The Congress has governments in three states and the top leadership has not been able to tackle the dissidence in any of them. The leadership of the CMs continues to be challenged by some of their colleagues and therefore, a clear message needs to be sent by the high command regarding this, from time to time.
The Rajya Sabha polls are approaching and it is likely that the Congress could win up to nine seats, if it formulates its tactics properly. The problem would be in choosing candidates. It should not gamble with nominees, who may find it difficult to get support of the local leadership. It happened in Himachal the last time when Abhishek Singhvi lost to Harsh Mahajan because of dissidence.
The Congress leadership should think through its politics and the ramifications of all decisions, in order to remain relevant. Between us.
