More than anything else, the outcome of the Maharashtra civic polls has established Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis as a leader to watch in the future and someone who shall play a stellar role in the affairs of the BJP for a long time. Fadnavis has not only propelled his party to a grand victory in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation poll, thus ending the 25-year-old rule of the Thackeray family in the cosmopolitan city, but has ensured that the BJP was victorious in as many as 23 out of 29 bodies.
He has also demonstrated that smaller regional parties including his Mahayuti allies amounted to nothing without the support of the BJP, and thus it his party, under his leadership, that shall set the future narrative of the state politics.
There has always been speculation in political circles regarding the shape of things within the BJP in the post Narendra Modi era. There have been many key players who are viewed as potential aspirants for the top position at some later stage. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Union Minister Nitin Gadkari are considered important political figures. There should be no hesitation in stating that Fadnavis would now be a part of this extremely strong second line-up of the party, to enable the RSS to pick from, at an appropriate time.
While Fadnavis has proved his mettle for everyone to see and appreciate, it is for his allies now to accept his leadership in the state without posing any challenge. Even his adversaries like the Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena must acknowledge the emergence of a new star on the political horizon of Maharashtra, who while hailing from Vidarbha, is likely to shine in the sky for a long time.
The BMC polls in particular have been a major setback for Uddhav Thackeray, though he continues to retain his hold in some of the core pockets of his loyal followers. He has lost but has survived the political onslaught of the BJP-led alliance, and many feel that had he not aligned with his cousin, Raj and his party, the MNS, but with the Congress, the outcome would have been more favourable.
There are always a lot of things which can be stated while doing the analysis of a poll, but the Shiv Sena (UBT) defeat in Mumbai, exhibits its dwindling political future in the state. Unless Uddhav reinvents his strategy, his party could be in deeper trouble.
There is speculation in political quarters regarding Raj Thackeray’s role. Many suspect that he was playing the BJP game silently. On the one hand, he ensured that Uddhav and Congress did not align for the poll, and on the other, his own party’s nominees fared poorly in the alliance with his cousin. During the campaign, he tried to replicate the speeches of Balasaheb Thackeray in the 1960s and 70s to appeal to the Marathi voters but in the process, pushed the non-Marathi voters towards the BJP. Whether this was the outcome of his secret understanding with the BJP, or his eagerness to be one up on his cousin to try and usurp the Balasaheb legacy, is something which would be of interest in the future.
The biggest blow has been to the Congress, which once ruled the state for decades. It has been reduced to a fringe player and for this not only the current party high command has to take the blame, but also its leadership over the years which foisted leaders with no grassroots connect on the state. In addition, the decision of Sonia Gandhi following a split with Sharad Pawar to contest polls in alliance with his party was politically incorrect. The decision may have brought the alliance to power but it weakened the Congress and gave a lifeline to Sharad Pawar, who would have been finished if this had not been done.
In the Maharashtra civic polls, Fadnavis has apparently put an end to the ambitions of the Pawars in the state. Both uncle and nephew, who were always one despite posing to head separate factions, have been exposed and shown their place. They are both at the mercy of the BJP and Fadnavis. At best, Sharad Pawar, to secure a better future for his daughter Supriya Sule, can make his faction merge with the Congress at some stage. He has been the craftiest player in Maharashtra but has this time been clearly outwitted by the Chief Minister.
A lot is being said about Eknath Shinde, the Deputy Chief Minister, whose faction has managed to win on 29 seats in Mumbai. He has survived the political earthquake primarily because he was wise to stand with Fadnavis and the BJP. There is every possibility that the BJP, despite emerging as the single largest party in the BMC polls, could give a pivotal position to the Shinde faction, whose support would become paramount in running the day-to-day affairs. Accommodating Shinde would also imply sending a clear signal to the victorious nominees of the Uddhav Shiv Sena, thus also enticing them to switch sides in the future. All a part of politics.
The Congress has also a lot to worry following the rise and rise of Fadnavis. A Brahmin Chief Minister, who could be a primary player in national politics, and end many dreams the grand old party may still be having. The CM is the man to watch in the future. Between us.
