India has been surprised and more than a little disappointed at Trump’s equivocation during the brief flare up between India and Pakistan.
Many are asking why it is that so many international channels and publications are essentially repeating the ISPR line in their portrayal of Op Sindoor. Why have so many fact-filled dossiers given by India failed to convince so many journalists and policymakers that what Rawalpindi GHQ is saying is a pack of untruths? Such doubters overlook the decades-long practice of the Pakistan military (and by extension the Pakistan state) to use not so much money traps but honey traps to get policymakers to do their bidding. Flash back to the 1990s, when that close (let us not use the term “intimate”) friend of the dashing Shafquat Kakakhel, Robin Raphel, was Assistant Secretary of State dealing with South Asia. It would be an error to believe that even matters of High Policy are framed at the top. Rather, they are formed in the middle rungs of the administrative ladder. From there, they are filtered to the top, which may or may not add or subtract elements. And it is to mislead elements in such rungs that young and beautiful women and young and handsome men find ways of attaching them, usually through cocktail and dinner parties hosted by socialites who would have been previously cultivated by them. Both China and Pakistan are maestros in the arts of honey trapping.
In Washington, London and other consequential capitals, security agencies are understanding how big a risk such attachments are, and have begun taking measures to wean or warn targets off such liaisons. This is not to say that greybeards from a country do not have a role any more in influencing policymakers. Wise leaders rely on a few greybeards as well, to point out errors in policy and to suggest alternatives. Academics and analysts also have a significant role in shaping policy, and such individuals become the targets of such traps, for want of a better word. Film stars are a particular draw. Recently, a popular Bollywood starlet was a big draw at Davos, sent there by some clever patron to convey his message to those who matter for the furtherance of his interests. Given such a dynamic, it would be unfair to place all the blame for, to use an example, so many in the Trump administration from equating the victim of terror, India, with the perpetrator, Pakistan. Honeybees and a smaller number of moneybees would have been instrumental in getting US President Donald Trump to agree to his negotiating team at various levels a trade deal that, on the surface, seems to be to the advantage of China.
The problem confronting CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping is that if the US trade deficit with China does not narrow sharply in the 90-day term of the tariff cuts, the MAGA base, already uneasy at the deal and the effect it will have on the Make in the US Trump policy, would get infuriated. And he would need to produce more exports in third countries in order to artificially reduce the trade deficit of the US with China. And these can easily be tracked, not least because many if not most of the employees of such satellite units are citizens of the PRC. Also, the origin of the components of the assembly plants based offshore would be Chinese. Trump politically has a lot to lose until the 2026 November midterm elections in the US, which could result in a loss of the Republican Senate and House majorities if the President becomes unpopular. After 2026, Trump has a clear run until he demits office in January 2027, as he is wisely not running again. Whether he supports Vice-President Vance to be his successor in the White House or not is an open question, although Vance would be, by far, the best successor to President Trump.
India has been surprised and more than a little disappointed at Trump’s equivocation during the brief flare-up between India and Pakistan. A key to unlock the reason why the 47th President of the US equated the world’s biggest democracy with a state run by a military that uses terrorism as its main instrument of coercion could be found in the Emirate of Qatar. The Al Thani Family is accomplished and modern, and yet they continue to serve as a force multiplier for cesspools of terror and those responsible for nurturing them. Qatar has gifted a Boeing 747 to the US for use as Air Force One. Should that go into effect, it would create an unfortunate precedent. “Goodwill” from Qatar is sloshing around all across Washington, and this may be what led to the US equating India with Pakistan and by published reports not volunteering to provide a weapons supply chain the way the Chinese have ensured for Pakistan.
It could also help explain why President Trump seems to have backpedalled on his earlier vow that Israel would be given all the assistance the US could provide to help Jerusalem demolish not just the military wing of Hamas and Hezbollah but the capabilities of the IRGC as well. It could explain the reaching out to the new leaders of Syria, which has the potential to be what Afghanistan became by the close of the 1990s, a deadly security threat to the US. Terrorism and authoritarian expansionism are the twin risks to international tranquillity that are the common foes of India and the US. A mitigating factor would be India agreeing to convert the Quad into a military alliance for mutual security in the manner the other three Quad members already are. The Ship of State is navigating through choppy, often unpredictable, waters, and Captain Modi will need all the experience he has accumulated over his decades of public life to get our 1.4 billion people into a safe harbour.