With the Election Commission declaring the schedule for the election of the new Vice President, speculation has commenced on who the next incumbent would be of this constitutional position. It was being said that since there was no time bar on this particular election, the matter may get delayed, with the Deputy Chairperson of the Rajya Sabha serving as the principal presiding officer of the Upper House. However, the announcement of the election indicates that the BJP is determined to have the new Vice President soon, in order to end any kind of conjectures regarding the issue.
There are many political analysts who are linking the selection of the new VP to the decision on the next BJP chief as well. It is common knowledge that the extended tenure of J.P. Nadda, the sitting BJP president is to end soon, and if his successor has not been chosen, it is primarily because the party leadership and the RSS have not been able to agree on a single name. Multiple names have been thrown in the public domain, but one by one, they have disappeared because of lack of consensus. It is paramount for the BJP to have its nominee as the next Vice President, to send down a clear message in political circles regarding its absolute say in this matter. The Vice President’s role becomes critical because of his being the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha.
The former VP, Jagdeep Dhankhar, during his tenure was accused of infringing the norms of the august House by speaking on every issue, as well as taking sides. In this context, it has to be remembered that when Dhankhar was elected as the Vice President in 2022, the BJP had a complete majority of its own, and thus there were no problems in getting him through. With reduced numbers after the 2024 polls, the BJP, though, still in a clear position to get its nominee elected, has to also take into considerations the sensitivities of its alliance partners. As things stand today, the allies are completely with the BJP’s leadership, and if the Opposition decides not to make a token fight by pitting its own candidate, the next VP would be chosen unanimously. There are also reports regarding the RSS playing a role in this matter and thus, its approval would be necessary as well.
For those who have been following the BJP-RSS relations, particularly, during the past one year or so, the RSS would only say yes to someone who has a proven track record so far as the Sangh is concerned. This eliminates anyone like Dhankhar, who was selected, though he had a background of being with both Janata Dal and the Congress at different times of his career. In other words, the next VP shall have to be from the Sangh Parivar unless the BJP is able to convince Mohan Bhagwat and company regarding political expediencies that come into play in such an election.
However, given the mood within the Sangh, this may rather be a difficult thing to do. One way, the RSS would come on board would be if the BJP’s current leadership and that of the Sangh, come to an agreement on both the next president of the party and the VP simultaneously. If the RSS has its way on the next party chief, it may accommodate the choice of the BJP for the next Vice President. It may have to be a quid pro quo. There is also intense speculation that a Cabinet re-shuffle could take place immediately after the monsoon session. That of course is the prerogative of the Prime Minister, but the exercise can be used to satisfy all stakeholders to meet any fresh challenges ahead.
The Cabinet revamp and the party re-structuring both would perhaps hold the key for ensuring that cordiality between the BJP and the Sangh is not disturbed in any manner. There are several names that are doing the rounds for the next VP’s position. The selection is important since the next VP would also be in line for the election of the President of India when the term of the present incumbent ends. Many of the Vice Presidents have gone on to become Presidents but there are also numerous examples of those who could not make it as well. The names for the VP’s post include those of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, who enjoys the support of some key Sangh functionaries and has the capacity of being acceptable to his opponents also.
The question that would arise is whether the Prime Minister would want him to be relieved of his current position, since “Operation Sindoor” as per the government’s stand, is “still ongoing”. There has been speculation in some circles that Manoj Sinha, the current Lt. Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, who is close both to PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, would be in the consideration as well. His selection would be dependent on the Sangh’s approval. Other names such as those of Arif Mohamad Khan, Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nitish Kumar are also among those in circulation.
The key issue, however, remains as to who the next BJP president would be, since the two matters would be decided simultaneously and have somehow got linked. The RSS has already given out its preferences for the BJP’s top job and is now waiting for the BJP to give its response. This is a crucial phase for the future BJP-RSS relations.
