President Trump is among those world leaders whose habit it is to look at media reports from different countries, principally to check on what is being written about him. Over the past few days, the front pages of Englishlanguage newspapers in India have been filled with reports and commentary that are, to put it mildly, not flattering to the US President. Recently, the lead stories were almost all about India “fighting back” against the tariff “threats” and “blackmail” of the US President.
Unsurprisingly, the same day in Washington, Trump signed an Executive Order raising tariffs on most items sourced from India. It is not a secret that President Trump takes everything concerning him personally, and glancing through such headlines would have infuriated him. India clearly needed to be taught a lesson, and it was sought to be made through a hike in tariffs.
The hikes set off a flurry of official reactions terming the tariffs “unreasonable”, which indeed they were. Given the short fuse of President Trump, the jury is out on whether such public reactions were the best course to follow, or something more anodyne, such as that such an imposition would be discussed with the US side so that an amicable resolution of the trade dispute could be arrived at.
What cannot be disputed is that the US President has been elected for a four-year term beginning January 20, and this is a fact of life that needs to be kept in mind while planning responses to some of his actions. The Chinese media have been filled with the tariff hikes and references to India by the US, and they do not conceal their delight at such a situation. Taiwan is another country that has been hit by tariff hikes. Japan and South Korea have each been pressured to make concessions to the US, despite being longstanding and reliable allies of the US.
Defence Secretary Peter Hegseth has been forthright in warning of the high risk of a kinetic conflict between China and the US, even as early as 2027. Whether it be India, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan, each has been busy strengthening kinetic offensive and defensive capabilities to cope with the eventuality of a kinetic conflict with China, which South Korea once and India on multiple occasions have had with China under the Communist Party. If not the governments, certainly the people of countries that are allies of the US are beginning to doubt that the US would come to their assistance in case there is a kinetic showdown with China.
If CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping develops a high degree of certainty that the US will not get involved in such a conflict, he would find it irresistible to make an effort at converting Taiwan into a Chinese province. Were that to happen and the First Island Chain of defence get penetrated by China, the US itself would be vulnerable, as would the rest of the countries in the Indo-Pacific. As has been the case in the past as well, the Pakistan army may not be proficient in conflict, but is in knowing how to win them over. The English-language media in Pakistan is replete with flattery of President Trump. He proposes to travel to Beijing to meet President Xi.
Countries across the Indo-Pacific will be watching to see the messaging that comes out of such a meeting. In the interests of US security, the message has to be that the US will stand by its allies and partners were they to be subjected to a kinetic attack by China. A strong countervailing force is the best guarantee for peace, and peace is what is needed as these countries focus on economic progress and the wellbeing of their citizens
