President Donald Trump is making a decision that is inexplicable from his own personal point of view as well as that of the United States. Taking aim not at the actual adversary of his country but at a necessary partner in dealing with the efforts of that adversary to displace the US as the Numero Uno in the global order defies geopolitical and even political needs. Whether it be African Americans, Indian Americans or the disadvantaged citizens of European descent, who voted for him on the promise of a better life, are seeing the opposite come to pass.
The jobs they held, whether it be as lumberjacks or as shop assistants, are disappearing as a consequence of the billionaire-focused policies of the US President. As such complaints multiply from their constituents, Senate and House of Representatives Members are growing uneasy at the fallout and are finally beginning to react. As for the US Supreme Court, the Justices are overall of impeccable integrity, including those in office because of the Trump dispensation.
The Supreme Court can safely be counted on to come on the side of upholding the US Constitution and doing so with integrity. Meanwhile, India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is playing the long game, not looking towards the next soundbite on television but towards the needs of the next generation. Despite its size, Brazil even under President Lula was unable to give an assurance that President Putin would not be arrested were he to arrive for the last BRICS Summit.
The absence of such a firm promise resulted in President Putin absenting himself from the Summit. In contrast, where India is concerned, there has never been any doubt that Putin would be accorded the state honours that are his due as President of one of the four major powers of the world, along with the US, China and India.
As for Brazil, it was subjected to coercive action by the US not because of any reason connected with the US but because of criminal proceedings taking place against former President Bolsonaro. Whether in Brazil or elsewhere, several of the actions of President Trump are creating a mood of anti-US sentiment in a way that years of CCP efforts at indoctrination of anti-Americanism within the Global South could not.
Given that neither the geographical location nor the GDP of China qualify the country as being part of the Global South, it is India that is by far the largest country in that increasingly consequential group. Given the rising political cost to President Trump and the elected officials who support him, it seems to be only a matter of time before he reverses course. What has been made clear by the episode is that diversification by India is essential in key fields. There was a time when domestic sources of rare earths were far more plentiful than they are now.
The ONGC was set up to ensure self-sufficiency in fossil fuels. Its record in locating domestic sources of such fuels has been dismal. The main driver of such records of consistent failure is corruption, especially by entities that offer payments in locations near impossible to detect. Why those in authority sought to make inordinate sums of money at the cost of the public good defies rationality. Most of such funds remained in the foreign institutions where they were parked, once the individuals from India who had parked them overseas passed away.
Long back, on a visit to Geneva to attend a conference, the same had been pointed out with a smirk by a local. His somewhat cynical comment was that corruption in other countries was good for his country, because over time it swelled the value of unclaimed deposits in some financial institutions. Whether in inter-personal or broader relations, reason and diplomacy trump bluster and bullying.
Favourable outcomes secured through bullying usually last much less longer than those outcomes which reflect the interests of both sides. To give an example, in order to live up to its name, healthcare has to be distinguished by humanity. Those doctors who show that quality to their patients usually have much higher favourable outcomes than those for whom all that matters in each patient is how much money can be made off her or him. In the same way, a manager who has such a quality gets more productivity out of her or his workforce.
During Modi 3.0, start-ups are thriving in India, and competitors are increasingly unable to utilise the help of corrupt people in authority to sabotage their progress. In times past, many of the best start-ups were forced to relocate elsewhere rather than continue in India, while most of the rest were closed down as a consequence of arrests and prosecutions on trumped-up charges. The youth of India represent an immense reservoir of realized or potential talent, and countries that are suffering from a shortage of youth may find the solution in India, as the US has for long and despite some shrill and uninformed rhetoric from a handful of domestic constituencies, still does. It is no longer manufacturing but talent and innovation that power the engines of progress.
In the recent brief conflict with Pakistan, it was the drone fleet more than any other means that caused havoc on the aggressor. The creation of an ecosystem favourable to the protection of innovation is among the key tasks of Modi 3.0 and work in this direction is proceeding apace. As for Trump 2.0, the signals coming out of it have been confusing, such as the threat from Washington that if the Alaska summit between Trump and Putin failed, secondary tariffs on India would rise. A faster way of losing the trust even of longtime friends would be difficult to discover.
The second term of President Trump began in a transformative way, with an outstanding team collected by his side. Much of the impact of that ought not to be frittered away by some of the activity emanating from the White House. Allowing agricultural imports from the US may marginally benefit a few farmers in a handful of US states, but would devastate the rural economy in India.
In the same way, building dependency on artificially made US seeds would affect generations to come in India, which is why the Union Government is firm that such imports cannot be permitted. The sky is no limit to India-US trade and other cooperation, including in space. The faster satellites from friendly countries multiply in the distant reaches of the sky, the less would be the damage actual and potential of such enemy activity. Reverting to the clash with Pakistan, it was the superior capability of India to track hostile missiles and activity that swung the scales of battle to the side of the most populous democracy in the world.
The India US relationship has by now become resilient enough to last out the shocks created by the White House, but the question in Washington is about how long the President himself can outrun the barbs being flung his way. When longtime backers such as Rupert Murdoch turn against him, it is time for President Trump to introspect on some of his present ways. The CCP General Secretary has a grip on power in the governance structure of China that is far in excess of that exercised by a US President.
Both the legislature as well as the judiciary, not to mention segments of the media, act as a check on President Trump in a manner not possible in China where General Secretary Xi is concerned. Those close to President Trump, principally his immediate family, need to remind the 47th President of the US about this, for his own sake.
