On September 3 in Beijing, CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping presided from the ramparts of Tiananmen square over what was admittedly a spectacular 80th anniversary Victory Day parade. The victory celebrated was against Japan, achieved during the first half of the previous century. No mention was made of the fact that it was the dropping of atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki that forced Japan to sue for peace in 1945. Or that it was the KMT under Chiang Kaishek that was in power during that time. It is true that the PLA under Mao Zedong notched up a few victories over the Japanese, including the defeat of the Itagaki division close to the Great Wall. However, dressing up facts to fit a triumphalist narrative is not confined to China. Given the barrage of information designed to convey that it was the Anglo-American crossing of the English Channel that was the driver behind the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945, it is unsurprising that so many in the UK and the US forget the overwhelming role played by Soviet armies that gutted the German armies. Of course, plentiful supplies of weapons from the US proved decisive in the Soviets overcoming the Nazi Wehrmacht. None of this fazed Xi as he in effect declared that China had arrived at the peak of the mountain, implying that the days of US pre-eminence were over.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi left a full day before the parade, but that did not stop some in Europe from trolling his “closeness” with Kim Jong Un. The trolls did not talk about the closeness between Xi and Kim who flanked him on one side, Putin on the other. In a sign that reality is beginning once more to seep into the mind of President Trump, he indicated in his social media platform that Putin, Kim and Xi were “conspiring against the US”. As far as Kim was concerned, his obsession was regime survival, or the continued control of the Kim family in North Korea. As for President Putin of the Russian Federation, he was looking for a way out of the attempts at isolation and the restrictions against Russia which had been imposed by the UK, the majority of members of the European Union and the US. He was also looking towards the conquest of Ukrainian territory sufficient for his needs, and an exit from a war that was weakening the Russian Federation and exacerbating its disadvantage over China. At the Victory Day parade, Xi was clearly the senior by far of the collection of Heads of State and Government gathered around him to witness the new phase of “China is standing tall” rather than simply the “China has stood up” rhetoric of Mao Zedong as he celebrated the founding of the People’s Republic in the same location that Xi and his guests were standing so many years later.
The confusion, correctly described as chaos, caused by the sudden slippage of President Trump into a dystopian view of the world will, if continued, do incalculable harm to those countries challenging the efforts of President Xi to ensure that he becomes the sole tiger on the pinnacle of geopolitical power. As a consequence of the storm of abuse and penalties that he has serially imposed on the allies and partners of the US, including not just India but the EU, Japan and South Korea, not to mention Australia and Canada. Had Donald Trump been a Manchurian candidate planted in the White House to sabotage the world free of PRC domination, he could not have done a better job furthering the interests of China in the manner that has become evident over the past six weeks especially.
As of now, the reasons for a switch by President Trump from for to against India remain obscure. His Truth Social post about the Putin-Xi-Kim confabulation is the first glimmer of hope that President Trump may be at the start of reverting to the clear-sighted strategist he was before the fog of chaos struck. As for India, Prime Minister Modi has been stoic about the present situation, which has given him a much needed window to make changes in the GST and income tax structure essential for faster economic growth. The more punitive the tax regime, the greater the incentive for evasion and corruption, a fact that is being sought to be corrected during Modi 3.0. As has been mentioned before, the objective of the anti-Modi collective was to restrict the Lok Sabha tally of the BJP to 220, and they came close to success with the BJP securing just 240 Lok Sabha seats. The objective for the 2029 polls, as has been stated before, is to restrict the BJP tally to 150 Lok Sabha seats, an outcome which would almost certainly prevent a Modi 4.0. The way to convert the 150-conspiracy into a 300 (Lok Sabha seats) outcome is to ensure a regulatory and tax regime that would shift the incentive from evasion to compliance.
Much of the large-scale business sector in India has become a vehicle for bearing the load of foreign brands rather than upscaling themselves to be global champions themselves. India has a lot of inherent advantages, not least its demographics. The young need productive work, else they will flow into the streets in a larger version of what took place in Bangladesh in August 2024. A reconditioning of the policy structure that would promote growth with compliance needs to be done during Modi 3.0, and a beginning is being made. The proposed changes in GST and income-tax are evidence of that. More such reforms are needed during Modi 3.0.
The greater the chaos caused by the tariff and other furies unleashed by President Trump, the greater the need to tread a path designed to avoid the pitfalls of that chaos and craft a framework that would serve as a development model for the rest of the world.
