Ukraine’s innovation and production are such that they now not only have Russia against the ropes, but they export to the Middle East.
KYIV, UKRAINE: War might overshadow Ukraine, but there is an energy to Kyiv reminiscent of Tel Aviv or Bangalore. As Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken advised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to flee. Central Intelligence Agency assessments disparaged Zelenskyy as an unserious comedian incapable of lasting let alone leading during war. Instead, Ukrainians rallied and Zelenskyy showed himself to be Ukraine’s Sam Manekshaw. Four years into a war that has cost the Russians five lakh soldiers—25 times more than Russia suffered during its war in Afghanistan—Ukrainians appear increasingly resilient.
Life goes on in Kharkiv, a city of 14 lakh famous for its universities and for its massive outdoor tribute concert for Freddie Mercury, even as Russian forces dig in just 20 kilometres away. Students flirt in cafes and karaoke bars and mothers watch their children at playgrounds. Schools have relocated to metro stations and even old Soviet nuclear bunkers, brightly painted for children and equipped with wifi and upgraded ventilation. One of the reasons why Ukrainians can maintain such normalcy is because of the agility and creativity of Ukrainian tech. Every Ukrainian and every visitor to Ukraine has a free app on their phone that alerts them to ballistic missile and drones upon launch, and updates as the trajectory of the incoming missiles and aircraft become clear. The app also shows the closest shelters. When the war started, Ukrainian programmers and tech workers walked into the defence ministry and offered their services for free; within a week, they were distributing an app that arguably has saved tens of thousands of lives.
Such an app should be a must-have along the Line of Control with Pakistan, especially as Turkey provides Islamabad with drones and China sells Pakistan aircraft, missiles, and artillery.
What has turned the tide of war, however, are Ukrainian drones. While in Ukraine, I visited a top-secret drone factory, one of many. Ukrainian factories can now produce small first-person view drones every eight seconds or so. Longer range drones now reach deep into Russia, striking within sight of the Kremlin and as far as St. Petersburg. As the war comes to Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s propaganda bubble has burst; he can no longer fool the Russian people into believing Russia is winning.
Russian strikes continue deep into Ukraine as well. Surveillance drones hum like lawnmowers during the day; if weather allows greater visibility, they usually herald within a few hours simultaneous missile, drone, and glide bomb attacks. These can be brutal and cause significant property damage, but they are also becoming more sporadic for the simple reason that it can take several days for Russia to rebuild and replenish its stocks after every attack. Both sides are in a race to produce and innovate, but Ukraine is pulling ahead. Ninety-five percent of the drones Ukraine uses are produced in Ukraine. Ukrainian factory workers, whose average age appeared to be just around 22, said they can get real time reports from frontline soldiers and make more than 500 adjustments each year to their assembly line.
Ukraine’s innovation and production are such that they now not only have Russia against the ropes, but they export to the Middle East. While India has long relied on Russian weaponry—60% of India’s arsenal was at one time Russian in origin—that figure has now declined by nearly half. Russia’s failure to fulfil Indian jet engine purchases after the Russian invasion of Ukraine led New Delhi to look for other sources; President Donald Trump’s threat to use trade as a cudgel led Indians to recognize the United States was no more trustworthy.
Here, however, Ukraine provides an opportunity. While India remains neutral and many old guard bureaucrats and diplomats remain sympathetic to Russia, New Delhi knows it must diversify. Here, Ukraine could be a useful partner not only technologically, but also culturally as Ukraine, too, is an aspiring democracy whose people are, like Indians, strong patriots.
Indian industry increasingly pairs with Israeli tech and Emirati money. Ukrainian ingenuity is the missing peace. India might still work with Russia and pursue a neutral path, albeit one that misses moral clarity, but India’s own interests and battlefield proof of concept suggest Ukrainian factories rather than their Russian counterparts will better ensure India’s strength and security.
*Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, and a distinguished scholar at the Usanas Foundation in Udaipur.
