The way Donald Trump has been veering from one set of policies to another entirely the opposite has been put down to surges of irrationality by the US President. It must be confessed that the present writer held much the same view as well, although further study indicates a strategic purpose behind the changes of course. Why has Al Qaeda leader Al Jolani, now freshly presented as Al Sharaa, become the toast of Washington? Why has General David Petraeus, the head of the forces battling Al Qaeda in Iraq just a while ago, suddenly held a very public, very deferential meeting in New York with Al Jolani, sorry, Al Sharaa? Iran may be the key. President Trump may be looking at using the militants under Al Sharaa against Iran and its proxies such as the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas. Another military force reeking of terrorist impulses, that of Pakistan, has also been enjoying a honeymoon with President Trump. It could be to serve the same purpose against Iran and its proxies as Al Sharaa may have been tasked with. Question after question, but within that constellation of queries an Iran strategy seems to be taking shape. And although still hidden, the outline of a China policy consistent with the earlier bold stance of Trump, which was among the reasons why he chose J.D. Vance as his running mate, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Under Trump, the US has been squirreling away as much rare earth reserves as it manages to find, so that it has enough in case logistics get affected by disruptions caused by a kinetic war. India led by Narendra Modi, a fellow democracy that will go through tariff tantrums yet remain a partner of the US, is doing likewise.
As for Russia, in case the probability of a full blown confrontation with the other superpower takes place, perhaps the intention is to coax Russia closer to the US through an outward show of hostility combined with covert diplomacy. In any event, the instrumentality of threats of cutback its oil exports and continuing the Ukraine war works to ensure that it makes better sense for Moscow to opt for neutrality rather than joining in a direct kinetic confrontation between the US and China. After all, that is exactly what China is doing in Ukraine in the war that NATO proxy is having with Russia. Abruptly changing course and saying that Ukraine could win back the territories lost to Russia since 2014 could be Trump the Weapons Merchant encouraging the dispirited Ukrainians to fight on with US weapons bought by European powers whose domestic audiences are getting as tired of the Ukraine war as the people of that country themselves have been. The graph of Zelenskyy is falling, hence the postponement of long overdue elections by President Zelenskyy “until the war ends.” President Trump knows that Russia will never cease fighting until it captures the entire Donetsk province.
“Stray” attacks on EU states have been rising, and are expected to continue. President Putin is proud of the role of the Russian people in the war against Hitler, and he and the people he leads will never surrender territory won at such a high cost, if needed even by using low-yield tactical nukes to scare EU members into accepting a ceasefire. Given the need for President Xi to show he is strong, China will not stop oil imports from Russia, nor will India even while the country buys more fuel from the US. For Trump’s policy to serve US security interests, the White House needs to reverse its tariff increases against India even while the pressure needs to build on China, the only adversary with the potential to end the global primacy of the US.
