Emulating the example of its erstwhile other half (West Pakistan), Bangladesh under Mohammed Yunus is rapidly hurtling towards becoming a failed state: a chaotic anarchy where murderous street violence is rampant, virulent Hindu persecution prevails and toxic anti-Indianism is the guiding mantra. An unstable, lawless and radically extremist Bangladesh does not augur well for India or for its non-Muslim minorities especially the Hindus. This dangerous, developing situation calls for an immediate and comprehensive recalibration of our policy towards this recalcitrant neighbor; a strategy that will safeguard our security and protect Hindus there.
THE PAST
First, a rewind to the tumultuous events of 1970-71 that led to the birth of Bangladesh to give young Bangladeshis many of whom were not born then, a reality check: to make them aware of India’s heroic role as well as the brutal genocide perpetrated by the Pakistan Army.
An unprecedented electoral victory in 1970 gave Sheikh Mujibur Rehman the leader of the East Pakistan based Awami League the parliamentary majority to become the Prime Minister, much to the dismay of the Western wing. What followed was a ruthless Army crackdown across East Pakistan termed Operation Searchlight in which the Jamaat was a co-conspirator; over 3 million Bangladeshis especially intellectuals and professionals were massacred and thrown into mass graves; another 10 million fled to India; countless women were raped. Eventually, it was the Indian Army that stopped these killings and liberated Bangladesh.
Every Indian, rich or poor, paid for this war by additional stamp duty and higher rates at the box office. Our Army suffered significant casualties: over 4,000 killed and nearly 10,000 injured. By downplaying India’s role Bangladeshis are doing a great disservice to history and to themselves. More ironical is Bangladesh’s attempt to forge military ties with the same Pakistani Army that butchered its people.
THE FUNDAMENTALIST STREAK
India’s misstep with Bangladesh also stems from a failure to understand the basic DNA of Bangladesh. Post 1971, we were lulled into a false sense of complacency; a belief that we will always have a well-wisher to our east. This was a naïve inference that overlooked the subliminal radical Islamist streak that always existed in East Bengal, expressed as anti-Hindu violence and anti-Indian rhetoric.
Radical Islam has played a major role in shaping the politics of this region since the formation of the Bengal Provincial Muslim League in 1912. Bengal consistently preferred the Muslim League to the more secular Indian National Congress in the pre-independent period; the Muslim League victory in the 1946 provincial elections was decisive in creating Pakistan. Bengal was a crucible of anti-Hindu animosity and the site of horrific Hindu killings like Kolkata’s Direct Action Day and the pogrom at Noakhali. In Noakhali, over 5,000 Hindus were massacred, hundreds of women were raped and thousands forcibly converted to Islam.
The Hindu population has undergone a steady attrition over the years, falling from 28 to 8.96% in the period 1940 to 2011. Even the emergence of Bangladesh in 19711 did not arrest this contraction: the Hindu population fell from 13.5% in 1974 to 8.96 in 2011-a one-third drop which is humungous in demographic terms and a stark indicator of the continuing hostile anti-Hindu environment. With the collapse of the Awami League government last year attacks on Hindus have escalated even more with over 2,900 new incidents being reported- proof that Islamic fundamentalism is on the ascendancy.
WAY FORWARD FOR BANGLADESHI HINDUS
One positive development amidst the current turmoil is the formation of a political party-the Bangladesh Minority Janta Party (BMJP). Of the eight administrative divisions, Hindus constitute more than 10% of the population in at least three—Sylhet (14.5), Rangpur (13.21) and Khulna (12.94) and account for more than 20% of the total populations in districts like Gopalganj, Khulna, Maulvi Bazar and Thakurgaon. The Hindu vote can be leveraged to ensure their rights.
This is an important first step for Hindus as opposed to taking the easy way out—fleeing to India. The Hindus of Bangladesh must realize that they are fighting for their survival and must do everything that is necessary to ensure their existence. If not the prophecy of Dhaka University Prof Abul Barakat who surmised that at the current rate of Hindu exodus (632 Hindus per day) “there will be no Hindus left in Bangladesh in 3 decades” will come true.
While India can keep its doors open, the first priority must be to provide moral support to the Hindus. India owes a civilizational obligation to the Hindus of Bangladesh and is duty-bound to go the entire length to protect them. If humanitarian considerations drove India to help a predominantly Muslim Bangladesh in 1971 there can be no argument against a similar move in aid of Bangladeshi Hindus in the future if necessary.
PAK-BANGLA-CHINA AXIS AND ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
The recent regime change in Bangladesh has geopolitical consequences. The demographic imbalance in our Northeast induced by illegal immigration could be exploited by a hostile Pakistan-Bangladesh-China Axis to compromise our sovereignty.
Muslims of East Bengal have always had territorial designs on India’s Northeast; at the time of partition attempts were made to incorporate W. Bengal and Assam into East Pakistan or to create a Muslim dominated third entity encompassing whole of the Northeast and United Bengal. In 1991 an article titled, “The Question of Lebensraum” in a Bangladeshi mainstream newspaper, Holiday (October 18, 1991) actively promoted illegal immigration: “…The natural trend of population overflow from Bangladesh is towards the sparsely populated lands… of the North East in the Seven Sisters side of the Indian subcontinent. “
And on December 12, 2025, the slain student leader Osman Hadi had circulated a map titled “The Natural Borders of Bengal” which included even West Bengal in addition to India’s Northeast.
At some time in the future when India may be transiently weakened by political instability or the presence of a less vigilant government at the Centre there is a real danger of Bangladesh attempting to incorporate these primed areas into a Greater Bangladesh. A possibility that may become even more challenging in the face of a Pakistan-Bangladesh-China Axis, with the United States as a mute spectator—a conspiracy of sorts among nations inimical to the rise of India.
Bangladesh is in the process of signing a Mutual Defence Agreement with Pakistan. And Mohammed Yunus on a trip to China offered that country free access to the Bay of Bengal while emphasizing the strategic vulnerability of India’s landlocked Northeast—both indicative of malicious intent towards India.
A Pakistan-Bangladesh-China Axis can create a dangerous scenario both to the north (China) and south of our eastern boundaries. This must be nipped in the bud before it attains full-fledged fruition.
India must not shy away from exploring even a 1971 like intervention to widen India’s chicken neck and target Bangladesh’s own chicken’s neck—the Chittagong Hill tract area that could cut off access to its major port of Chittagong; at its narrowest South Tripura lies only 28 kms from the Bay of Bengal.
Chittagong Hill Tract (CHT), a hilly area in southeastern Bangladesh that borders the Indian states of Tripura and Mizoram, had a non-Muslim majority at the time of Partition (97%–mostly Buddhist but Hindus as well) and remains so even today. It should have become a part of India. The Indian Tricolour was even hoisted at Rangamati the capital of CHT on August 15, 1947; however, two days later when the boundaries were announced the Pakistani Army moved in. The British rationale of gifting CHT to Pakistan was to provide access to the major port of Chittagong. Why India did not contest this decision is a mystery.
If Bangladesh openly flaunts its designs on our Northeast, we should have no qualms about reciprocating in kind even if it amounts to mere posturing. This will put Bangladesh on the defensive.
India has been too friendly and too forgiving with respect to its smaller neighbours; a friendliness seen as weakness and exploited to make claims on our territory and side with our enemies. India need not become the neighborhood bully, but it needs to draw a red line in the sand as a stern warning. Further, India’s Bangladesh policy must not be dependent on a friendly government in Dhaka. It must be an all-weather standalone robust policy that will safeguard India’s interest regardless of who is in power in that country.
