Pitted against all odds, Iran has managed to so far survive repeated onslaughts from US-Israel armed forces, considered to be the mightiest in the world. In a war brought upon by the invasion of the country even though negotiations were on, Iran now holds the key on how this conflict would end.
US President Donald Trump has been making contradictory statements on a daily basis, thus adding to the confusion, while Israel has extended the warzone to neighbouring Lebanon. There is a strong section in Tel Aviv and in Washington which disapproves of what has been happening, but no end seems to be in sight.
Iran has declared that it was closing down the Strait of Hormuz and Washington is toying with the idea of invading Kharg Island to ensure safe passage for ships through the Persian Gulf. Trump had announced a five-day cessation of hostilities but during this period, one of the nuclear sites in Iran was again bombed, inviting a sharp response from Moscow. The general impression is that while the war was started by Israel, which roped in the United State, it can only end when Iran wants.
The assassination of its top functionaries has made Tehran even more defiant and the new leadership is more determined than ever to defend their country. There appears to have been a gross miscalculation on the part of Washington, which, for some odd reason, underestimated its opponent and its staying power. The losses incurred by both America and Israel are being underreported by the Western media and also have their own tale to tell.
Diplomatic activity has heightened and many countries are trying to mediate, but the question remains on who the Americans should negotiate with. All the top leaders were assassinated at the beginning of the war and there is no clarity on who is in charge in Tehran, though the ruling dispensation continues to give a befitting reply to every strike being carried out.
There are also doubts on how an acceptable settlement can be brought about and who would provide a guarantee that the US and Israel may not strike Iran again. Trump may be putting up a brave face but he knows that within his own country, his popularity ratings are going down and even though there is a segment of the Congress that appears to have been purchased by the influential Jewish lobby, it shall be sooner than later that the impact would be felt by the common people.
Recently, Trump announced that he would be putting boots on the ground, thus hinting at a ground invasion of Iran. This would be an extremely big folly since it would lead to a bloody conflict resulting in huge casualties. He has to exit the war theatre at the earliest by declaring victory, but it is evident that Israel shall not allow this to happen.
There have been reports that the Gulf countries which have been attacked by Iran since they had US bases are also wanting the American troops to leave for their own security. Trump is understood to have told them that they should pay for the money spent on the war so far and double the amount if they want the aggression to continue in the future.
The fate of 10 million Indians in the region seems to be uncertain and many are returning home for safety reasons. Dubai, a hot destination for even the super-rich in India, who had invested heavily there, is never going to be the same again, according to many strategic experts.
The impact of the war is already being felt in India and though the government is doing its best to control the oil prices and make LPG available, the economic repercussions would run deep. If the conflict does not end soon, things would worsen. In trying to cozy up to Washington, New Delhi inadvertently or consciously distanced itself from Moscow. The Russian oil it was purchasing before the threat of US sanctions would have to be procured at a much higher rate.
Trump has been berating the NATO allies for not joining the war. But the question remains that were these countries consulted when the misadventure commenced. With no oil from Middle East going to Europe, the dependence on Russia would increase. In other words, Russia was going to benefit from the US-Israel aggression on Iran.
The fast-changing developments could also have ramifications for the Ukraine war. There have been many experts who have been of the view that after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, NATO should have been dismantled. But this war could actually see the NATO getting weaker.
The objective of the US-Israel strikes on Iran seem to be unclear. Both the countries said that they wanted to ensure that Tehran gave up its nuclear program but then while attacking Iraq, the US had maintained that Saddam Hussain possessed weapons of mass destruction which incidentally was proved wrong.
The war could change the world economic order and end dollar domination. If that happens, Iran would have won. It holds all the cards. Between us.
