Is Congress heading for a split?

More than 46 years ago, the first challenge to the authority of Indira Gandhi following the historic second split in 1978, had come from Karnataka, when the then Chief Minister D. Devraj Urs distanced himself from the party and formed his own group. History may be repeating itself and just before the 140th raising day of the Congress later next month, the banner of revolt may be raised again from Karnataka, which is witnessing a bitter power struggle between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy D.K. Shivakumar. Incidentally, Devraj Urs has been the longest serving Chief Minister of Karnataka, and if Siddaramaiah survives the crisis and continues till after January 7, he could break the record. Parallels in history are always difficult to be drawn, but once Indira Gandhi had returned to power in 1980, the decline of Devraj Urs had commenced, and he did not last too long. In the latest instance, Siddaramaiah is well placed and the Congress does not have a central leader who is as strong and influential as Indira Gandhi was. Therefore, to draw any conclusions would be premature, though the possibility of a split in the party as well as the fall of the government cannot be ruled out at this juncture. The challenge would be to somehow get over this crisis and keep the flock intact. There is a lot of resentment in the Congress after the humiliating poll debacle in Bihar and questions about the leadership are being raised in different quarters. Thus, the party high command, which comprises only the Gandhis, would have to act fast, and prevent things from worsening. Mallikarjun Kharge, the party chief, appears to be helpless and continues to make statements, which effectively mean that the levers of power lie elsewhere and not with him. Faisal Patel, son of the late Ahmed Patel, the man who controlled the party during the long tenure of Sonia Gandhi as the Congress president, has openly rebelled. He maybe a nobody with no following or say in the party besides being considered as an insignificant character in the scheme of things, but what he has said about the “lost Gandhis” (Rahul and Priyanka) does have resonance amongst a section of the cadre. It is entirely another thing that most people in the party, including many of whom who prostrated before Ahmed Patel during his heydays, hold the former political secretary and Sonia Gandhi responsible for all that has gone wrong in the last two decades and more. Ahmed Patel wielded power like no one before him had done in the Congress (not even Indira’s trusted secretary R.K. Dhawan) and thus had wrested control of the organization through his minions. He drew his power from the high command of which he was an intrinsic part and sidelined many competent leaders of the day. However, all that was in the past, and the Congress, in order to move forward, has to reinvent itself to match the guile and political astuteness of the BJP spearheaded by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Unfortunately, those who have been entrusted with the task of revitalizing the party, have somehow been lacking. Rahul Gandhi has admitted that he too was responsible for the plight of the Congress and thus cannot be absolved of the blame.

The party leadership is toying with the idea of bringing about a generational change. This appears to be difficult since the ease with which the BJP had sidelined its seniors—Lal Krishna Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and others—consigning them to the Marg Darshak Mandal, perhaps cannot be replicated in the Congress. While the power struggle in Karnataka is in public domain, there seems to be an exercise that has commenced to ascertain whether changes in the organizational structure of the party at the Centre and in states would help. If reports are to be believed, Kharge is reluctant to continue since he many a times finds that he has no power to take any major decisions, and has to go through insignificant people to reach out to Rahul Gandhi. Amongst them are PAs and secretaries who have barricaded access to the supreme leader. Cynics in the Congress brand some of them as BJP’s sleeper cells, who leak information to the saffron brigade, and some others state that champagne Leftists have taken over. Rahul too is understood to be looking towards revamping the party and has multiple names in his mind for the position of both the party chief and general secretary in-charge of organization. Whether he can do that and appoint people of his choice is something which has to be seen in the future as also the acceptability of those appointed would have to be paramount. The fundamental problem with the party is that it has failed to strengthen its organizational structure over the years and this continues to be the primary reason for its decline. The Congress should have leaders who can pick up a phone and reach out to any other leader of any other party instantly. The high command has to be also accessible. Moreover, the Congress has to reclaim its original vote base of Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims. Other communities are very important, but the nucleus has to be resurrected. The social influence of these three communities coming together would be phenomenal. The leadership has to be aware that people want to vote for the party but it is the party which does not wish to win. Between us.