Mamata begins journey to Delhi

After handing out the most humiliating defeat to the Narendra Modi, Amit Shah-led Bharatiya Janata Party’s electoral machinery since 2014, Mamata Banerjee has proven beyond doubt that nobody was invincible in politics. The manner in which she countered each and every move of the saffron brigade, has shown how resolve, strategy and a good organization can overcome the might of money muscles and divisive narrative.
Mamata Banerjee may have lost to Suvendu Adhikari from Nandigram in an outcome which is going to face a legal challenge, yet, it was solely due to her never-say-die spirit that her party has returned to power for the third consecutive term, ending the BJP’s dream of conquering Bengal.
In the process, Mamata, after Morarji Desai, is perhaps the second person who has become the Chief Minister after losing her own seat. Desai was elected as the CM of Bombay (before the reorganization of states that led to creation of Maharashtra and Gujarat) in the early 1950s despite his individual loss. He was also the first person from Gujarat to become the Prime Minister, a feat Mamata may try to replicate as being the first Bengali to attain the coveted position in 2024.
However, politics, has its own share of uncertainties and no one can predict how the events unfold. Nevertheless, she has the credentials to become the primary challenger to the BJP, provided the non-NDA parties also back her fully. Elections in India are won mostly on the basis of negative voting against the ruling dispensation, if there is an alternative that appeals to the electorate.
In 2014, there was an anti Congress wave sweeping the country and the BJP projected Narendra Modi for the Prime Ministership, an idea that appealed to the people since he was viewed as a performing Chief Minister of Gujarat at that point of time. He had no difficulty in retaining power in 2019 with a historic mandate, because the opposition failed to offer an alternative. Now with Mamata on the scene, she could be the person who could take on the might of the saffron brigade in the battle for New Delhi in 2024.
Mamata has several advantages over many of her political contemporaries. She did her political apprenticeship in the Congress and thus is perceived by Congressmen, past and present, as having their political DNA. She is the only Brahmin mass leader, who could also by virtue of the casteist nature of the country’s politics, impact the social dimensions of the electorate.
Her added advantage is that being a woman, who has learnt to fight her own battles, she would attract a large number of women votes. In fact, in Bengal, a reason for the BJP’s drubbing was that women, by and large stood by her. If this gets repeated at the national level, there would be trouble for the BJP.
Mamata’s rise coincides with the time when Modi’s popularity as the leader has been on decline in the wake of the outbreak of the second wave of the pandemic. The Central government as also administrations of so many states have been found lacking the ability to deal with the mounting problem that has already claimed so many lives. The situation has been so bad that even within the Sangh Parivar, there are voices, though few, who are questioning the preparedness of their own government.
Therefore, Mamata has to barely consolidate her own position to hang on there to be in the reckoning for the next big position. Her supporters have been pushing her to contest from Varanasi in the Parliamentary election, a thought that could give BJP’s poll machinery sleepless nights, given the nature of results in the Panchayat elections that show that the saffron brigade’s popularity in the country’s most populous state was on the decline.
To begin with, Mamata would strengthen her own position in Bengal besides getting other parties to accept her as their possible leader. The formation of a new anti BJP front is inevitable and this would be done at the expense of the UPA, that is at present led by the Congress, the largest opposition party. Much would depend, on how the Congress views her victory and her rise. Other than the grand old party, there are crafty politicians such as Sharad Pawar, who would have a role to play. Pawar, is a master of political deception and someone whose actions are extremely difficult to predict. He has his own ambitious and can ditch anyone at any time if political compulsions are such.
Even within the Congress fold, there are several leaders who have the potential to be contenders for Prime Ministership and could change the course of politics by introducing new and unexpected elements. Regional leaders, vulnerable in the face of the uncertainties of politics would also have a role to play.
Above all, Modi can never be written off that easily. He is also a great fighter and understands the nuances of politics. His sense of timing has always been perfect and he knows how to utilize the BJP’s organizational strength to his advantage. He is someone who would also take on his opponents by digging his heels deep into the ground. He is charismatic and knows that he has the capacity to turn around things.
Therefore, Modi shall always be prepared for a confrontation with Mamata on a bigger stage. Politics is a game of multiple possibilities. Time alone shall tell.
Between us.