Much Sharad about nothing

Political machinations and maneuvers are a part of Maharashtra strongman Sharad Pawar’s personality, and therefore, it did not surprise those who have followed him over the years, when he first resigned, and then took back his resignation, as the chief of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
The NCP was formed after Pawar along with Tariq Anwar and the late P.A. Sangma were expelled from the Congress in 1999, when they raised the contentious issue of Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin. Those who joined him were mostly the ones who had benefited from their association with him and were amongst his loyalists. The new party had the Congress DNA except that it was primarily Maharashtra centric and the key positions in it were given to a select few, hand-picked by Pawar himself.
The primary reason for him to announce his resignation earlier last week at a function, was prompted by his apprehension that his nephew and former Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister, Ajit Pawar, was attempting to once again drift towards the BJP, along with some of the MLAs. While there is no official confirmation of this move by Ajit Pawar, there was intense speculation in political circles that a deal with the BJP had been sealed by him and would come out in the open very shortly.
In the backdrop of shenanigans which were playing out within the NCP, are the far-reaching ramifications of which some believe, would be the possible Supreme Court ruling, expected in the coming week, regarding the State Assembly developments that brought Eknath Shinde to power.
Many politicians from Maharashtra are of the view, rightly or wrongly, that the Apex Court judgement could lead to the disqualification of many Shiv Sena MLAs close to Shinde, which would have an impact on the future of even others who had switched sides. Since politics is a game of possibilities, the conjecture was that in the event of the disqualification, the strength of the Maharashtra Assembly would come down. If that was to happen, the halfway mark of securing a majority would be lower than what it was at this juncture. Such a scenario would be tailor made for the BJP to step in, and thus it would not only save the government but engineer a split in the ranks of the NCP, probably facilitated by Ajit Pawar, whose association with Devendra Fadnavis continues to be a subject of discussion.
The hypothesis may appear to be far-fetched but in politics, what happens theoretically, can always happen practically as well, provided the game plan is executed to the last letter. Some political analysts at this point do not rule out a situation where Ajit Pawar could further reduce the half-way mark by making some of the NCP MLAs also resign from the Assembly. If this was done, the BJP would be happily in a firm position and thus control the Maharashtra government.
The question that arises is that why Ajit Pawar would assist the BJP. He had done so in the past and no reason was given then and it took Sharad Pawar’s persuasive powers to make him return to the NCP fold and throw his weight behind the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) formation. Ajit Pawar perhaps finds himself vulnerable, given that there were charges of irregularities against him and the only way, he could probably revive his political fortunes was to side with the BJP.
In the complexities of Maharashtra politics, political survival has been a driving force, and Ajit Pawar has many cards which he can take out from his sleeve and put on the table at an appropriate time. After all he has done his political apprenticeship under his uncle and exactly knows what to do when.
Coming back to Sharad Pawar, his apprehension was not unfounded and he also knows what his nephew is capable of doing. Thus, by tendering his resignation in a dramatic manner, he tried to possibly pre-empt a coup within the NCP, and secondly prevent a split from taking place. Whether Pawar has succeeded in his damage control exercise would only be known after the Apex Court delivers its ruling shortly.
However, what could result from the much-publicized event, which seemed to isolate Ajit Pawar at one level is that it may have made the former Deputy Chief Minister even more determined in executing his plans, if he indeed has any understanding with the BJP or Devendra Fadnavis.
Pawar on Friday also spoke about a succession plan and his loyalists such as Praful Patel and Jayant Patil provided enough hints that pointed towards Supriya Sule donning the mantle of her father, sometime in the future. Pawar himself is aware that if he would, at this moment, try and anoint Supriya as his successor, the party may split. As it is Ajit Pawar may react after he has been humiliated.
The BJP is of course happy with the developments though it is yet to comment. From its angle, the BJP would want the Maha Vikas Aghadi to collapse as soon as possible in view of next year’s Parliamentary polls. If the MVA was to contest the polls in close coordination, the BJP may find it difficult to win too many seats in the state which sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
Sharad Pawar is playing his extended innings and continues to remain the most unpredictable politician. So far, he has never sided with the BJP, but nobody can predict what the future holds. Between us.