Major changes, which could potentially alter the current global configuration of power, have been afoot for over a decade. With Donald Trump becoming President of the United States and joining the two other assertive nationalist leaders, namely Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, on the global high table, each with the agenda of making his country great again, the pace of change has accelerated.
Meanwhile, two of the world’s most powerful nations, the US and China, after a sharp short-lived test of each other’s resilience and strength, appear to be moving towards a compromise which could mellow fierce competition for the next few years. But as Beijing is only too aware, that will probably hold only till Trump is US President. For Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), that is time enough to become the world’s mightiest power by 2049, and fulfil their promise to the Chinese people.
America’s role in a future world order will depend a lot on Trump’s desire and willingness to ensure that the US remains the pre-eminent global power. China’s Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have already jointly declared their intention to change the existing world order, ostensibly to make it more fair and inclusive. While Putin began redrawing international boundaries in Ukraine, at the 19th Party Congress in 2017, Xi Jinping announced China’s ambition to overtake the US as the world’s pre-eminent power by 2049—the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. He reiterated this at the next Party Congress five years later.
Additionally, Xi Jinping enunciated the principles of his new global world order: the Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative in a “community of shared destiny” contributed to by “Chinese wisdom”. The challenge to the US is clear.
Prompted by perceived weakness, fatigue as the world’s policeman, or withdrawal to a new phase of isolationism, the present Trump Administration has focused on domestic issues and the economy. There also seems to be an underlying effort to recraft the international monetary and trading systems to ensure America’s fiscal pre-eminence. President Trump, however, is obsessed with trade deficits and tariffs and is taking steps in a manner that has upset most countries.
In the process, and when the US is not in a position to contain or challenge China on its own, Trump has upset decades-old partners and treaty allies and weakened the US-led Western coalition. They harbour serious doubts about US commitment and willingness to aid its allies, and these have been compounded by Trump’s remarks that he will not involve the US in a war involving “some democracy in a remote corner of the world”, and his vacillating support to Taiwan and, initially, prior to Ukraine offering its rare earth and mineral reserves, to Ukraine.
The EU has now actively begun looking to strengthen relations with other countries in Asia and elsewhere. In the immediate aftermath of the Trump-Zelenskyy spat, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer sought to seize the opportunity for leadership of Europe by quickly gathering EU leaders in London to deliberate options. He also publicly genuflected and extended Trump an invitation from King Charles for a state visit.
The EU is aware that any schism with the US implies withdrawal of its nuclear umbrella. France is the only nuclear power in continental Europe, the other being the UK. Further weakening any intention the US may have of containing China, the EU, Australia, and many countries in Asia have slowed delinking economic ties with China. European countries and the EU too are re-examining their relationship and dependence on the US. They feel that the current turbulence suggests more deep-rooted issues and are questioning whether they can depend on the US even after Trump’s departure.
Diplomats and others from Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam in private conversation express concern about US willingness to confront China in the event of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) undertaking any military action against Taiwan or elsewhere in the South China Sea or Indian Ocean. They are accordingly enhancing defence preparedness and security partnerships with countries in the region. In a couple of cases, legislators have revived calls for acquiring nuclear weapons.
Beijing, meanwhile, is losing no time in trying to fill the vacuum created in international financial and other organisations to enhance its influence and global standing to overtake the US. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visits to three South East Asian countries and the Central Asian Republics exemplify this.
Certain steps taken by US President Trump also point to his seeking a compromise with Xi Jinping. After having introduced restrictions on the issue of visas to Chinese students coming to US universities amid strident rhetoric, Trump backed off within a day of China imposing a comprehensive ban on all rare earth exports. In fact, Trump appeared on TV saying he always favoured the students coming to the US.
Other steps apparently to mollify Beijing include lifting the ban on TikTok, not allowing Taiwan President Lai Ching-te to stop over in the US on his way to Latin America, and designating the BLA and TRF as foreign terrorist organisations.
After Xi Jinping successfully imposed the ban on export of rare earths, his position has strengthened domestically. Chinese social media promptly shows a surge in support for Xi Jinping and criticism of his policy towards the US has, at least for now, ceased. It will be difficult for the US to undo the damage to the relationships built over a long period of time.
The author is President of the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, and former Member of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB).
