We will reap a bitter harvest of political instability, poverty, social injustice and disharmony if we fail to invest strategically in the human capital of young men and women.
The gale of creative destruction is a process of industrial mutation that continuously revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.
Joseph Schumpeter
The Covid-19 pandemic has unleashed a gale of creative destruction. It is so in the comprehensive sense of Shiva’s cosmic dance, but also in the Schumpeterian sense of the economy—Indian and global. Many sectors, products and processes are undergoing destruction and reinvention. Who better to make the most of this creative destruction moment than youth—symbol of vitality, resilience, building anew?
India has the unique distinction of the highest number and largest share of youth population globally—40% in 15-29 cohort and 66% under 35 cohort—some 850 million. This youth advantage could last decades if combined with declining fertility rate of 2.2, positioning India to reap the demographic dividend.
Equally, we will reap a bitter harvest of political instability, poverty, social injustice and disharmony if we fail to invest strategically in the human capital of young men and women. If our youth cannot enter and stay in the labour market and equitably benefit from accelerated economic development, a volcano of unmet aspirations will erupt.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi picked demographic dividend as one of the five interrelated pillars of his Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan (ANBA) for a reason. It is youth and women’s empowerment, productivity, entrepreneurship and innovation that will drive India’s sustainable development by 2030 and exponential economic growth to achieve India’s $5 trillion GDP by 2025 ambition.
The Covid-19 pandemic has created singular socio economic and cultural crises for the youth and has deepened pre-existing faultlines in key areas. There is risk of Generation Z becoming a “Lockdown Generation” (ILO) due to five Covid-19 triggered shocks.
The First Shock is the humanitarian and health disaster. The youth have been frontline Covid-19 warriors, sacrificing their lives, delivering essential goods, health, sanitation, relief and police services. Their health needs, especially sexual and reproductive health needs are compromised. The young migrant workers’ crisis is a large-scale humanitarian crisis.
The Second Shock is the education disruption. The digital gap is exacerbating gender and poverty based school, higher education, skills and online/distance learning gap. There is risk of lifelong education to employability disconnect and “earnings penalty” for the youth. The ranks of youth Not in Education, Employment and Training (NEET) is swelling.
The Third Shock is the employment and income shock with collapse of industries and disruptions in supply chains, especially in youth intensive hard hit sectors, businesses and start-ups. CMIE estimates Indian youth job losses at 41%, up from 17% in 2018-2019. 75% of young workers are in informal, precarious jobs or self-employed. With 30% unemployment (IMF), the Indian youth could suffer “scarring effects” (ILO) of protracted unemployment.
The youth comprise masses of the “working poor” and migrant labour in rural and urban areas most vulnerable to economic crisis. Returnee Indian workers from abroad suffer job and income loss. They pose major labour dislocation and skills atrophy risks for the Indian economy and remittances foregone.
The Fourth Shock is the technology future shock—Covid-19 prompted acceleration and fast forwarding of 10 key technological applications of the Fourth Industrial Revolution including Supply Chain 4.0, AI and digitized world. Indian youth may have to bear the brunt of job destruction due to human labour substitution and risk perishing in the jobs, prosperity and innovation race.
The Fifth Shock is the social and psychological shock. Disadvantaged youth have become poster children of what SGUN called the “social inequality pandemic”, made worse by the Covid-19 one. They have multiple, intersecting handicaps due to their poverty, class, religion, caste, rural/urban/migrant status, disability and other vulnerabilities. They confront fear and uncertainty about their health, education, jobs and economic future, social isolation and deprivation, increased domestic violence and mental health issues.
THE 5 ELEMENTS
To insulate our youth from these five shocks and turn these into opportunities, I propose the Pancha Tatvas or 5 Elements of youth empowerment.
The 1st Tatva is youth power transformed health sector and disaster response. The expansion and enhanced strategic investment in health, medical and pharmaceutical infrastructure, products and services is a potential force multiplier for youth employment. The youth can drive efforts to health shockproof India, but also to become global health care hub and provider.
Ayushmaan Bharat-led health insurance should enable universal access of youth to quality health care and to achieve SDG 3. Most important is youth participation in ramping up grassroots health institutions, in delivery and uptake of SRHR and family planning programs. A revamped youth inclusive disaster response system must open new employment and entrepreneurship doors.
The 2nd Tatva is Youth empowering Education and skills Revolution. Under ANBA, measures for enabling distance education for those lacking internet access or infrastructure are being implemented. Schools and Universities have started online lessons and teachers upskilling and reskilling. Digital learning must become a democratization of education tool complementing in class education for all.
The new National Education Policy is a major enabler for making youth, as PM Modi said, future ready. It must facilitate 21st century knowledge, skills, STEM talent, creativity and employability. It must enable access to quality education and SDG 4 realisation. The new teaching, skills training and governance workforce of NEP must be youth intensive.
The 3rd Tatva is youth empowerment through a jobs bonanza. Under ANB but also through targeted and sector specific initiatives and investments, concerted Rozgaar Abhiyaan must be expanded and deepened. Interim relief to migrant and BPL workers must combine with a public-private sector ecosystem for decent work generation in all sectors.
Fostering industry demand driven skilling, upskilling and reskilling will create all collar, export competitive jobs. Easy access to concessional financing for young micro/MSME entrepreneurs is necessary. Scaled up local industries and infrastructure and dynamic local to national and national to global supply chains will generate sustainable youth employment.
The 4th Tatva is technology adoption by the youth for “future readiness”. Government, private sector and universities must join hands to create a global standards “Youth Skills Bank”. This will help garner future hi-tech/white collar jobs generated globally. The youth must master “frontier tech” and digital shifts transforming agriculture, manufacturing and services supply chains.
We must be ahead of the “future of work” curve and position our agile youth power strategically on the axis of human labour and hi-tech adaptability. Programs for hi-tech infrastructure, R&D platforms, equitable governance and Fintech must enable the youth to lead and benefit from Techeconomy 4.0.
The 5th Tatva is youth powered social transformation.
ANBA, PMGKY and other schemes must holistically address inter-generational poverty, social injustice and behavior change. A social protection revolution for empowerment of disadvantaged youth must be led by them. We must fill the woeful social services and care economy gap in rural and urban areas through youth social entrepreneurship, employment and advocacy.
A New National Youth Policy in keeping with ANB and post Covid new-normal imperatives and in consultation with youth stakeholders must be launched. A youth and inter-generational lens to economic relief, resilience and rebuilding is needed. Youth focused institutions and programs must complement youth mainstreamed national programs.
Youth participation in governance and movement building must leverage their agency as development actors. Young India must not be passive beneficiaries or “labharties” of government, private sector and CSOs’ largesse. Nor must they be victims of the Covid-19 disaster.
They must be the “Resurgent Generation”, proactively enabling the implementation, uptake and delivery of programs “for youth by youth and of youth”. They must positively transform the Indian economy and be “Masters of their own destiny” as Swami Vivekanand enjoined.
Lakshmi Puri is a former Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations and Deputy Executive Director of UN Women; and a former Ambassador of India.