Should President Trump agree to what Putin sees as the minimum demands of the Russian Federation, and if Trump with his usual style succeeds in getting Zelenskyy to agree, peace may indeed be the harvest.
Europe has been torn by wars for much of its recorded history. Wars of conquest, wars against aggression by fellow-Europeans. During World War I, millions died, an example being the way the war devastated France at the hands of Germany. At one point, it was regarded as inevitable that the army of Kaiser Wilhelm II would enter the gates of Paris in triumph, but by 16 September 2014, the “Miracle on the Marne” happened, and the French army threw back the Germans close to Paris, with heavy loss of life on both sides. After that, neither the French nor the Germans could regain the initiative, and the war settled into a static mode. Every foot of advance by one side was fiercely resisted by the other, with both sides suffering enormous casualties, ultimately ending by the close of the war in millions on both sides. While the shock it underwent caused France to in effect surrender without anything approaching a fight to the Nazi forces commanded by Adolf Hitler in 1940. Only after more than four years was France finally able to escape the clutches of the Nazis, including through a growing armed resistance to the occupation within the French population. In contrast, several Germans became more aggressive as a consequence of World War I.
The German army had lost the war so badly that the commanders of the German forces, Hindenburg and Ludendorff, asked the civilian government to capitulate. Ignoring this, the myth of the “November criminals”, that a victorious German army was made to surrender by the “November criminals” who signed the surrender document, took wings. The fiction was used to ultimately disastrous effect by a psychotic politician, Hitler, to rouse through his oratory several Germans to anger (at the “November criminals”) and support the Nazi party. A party steeped in hate, especially for Communists and Jews, and with a murderous bent of mind. What the Nazis did in wartime was to butcher innocents in a manner that exceeded any of the barbarisms of the past. The Nazis did to fellow Europeans what some of them had done to colonies in Asia, Africa and South America, and indeed, sometimes more. Ultimately, US weapons and the tenacity of the Russian army got the German side on the defensive by 1943, and facing ruin and utter defeat by the time they surrendered on May 7, 1945. What the Jewish people in particular endured as a consequence of the Nazis was such as to defy description for its horrors. The Romany were also marked for elimination by the Nazis, a story as yet inadequately documented.
According to the Trump administration point person for negotiating with the Russian side, Steve Witkoff, in an echo of the past, has issued a statement saying that there could be a durable peace in Europe if only all sides, including the Russians and the Ukrainians, would accept the US solution. It would not, of course, be quite so simple. The Ukrainian side led by Zelenskyy would like the Russians to give up several of their conquests of Ukrainian territory, while the Russians want more lands before they agree to a cessation of hostilities. They are looking at the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk, together with Crimea. It needs to be remembered that these territories were made part of Ukraine when Nikita Khrushchev, a Ukrainian, was the all-powerful General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU). Indeed, in its tortuous history, which was ended by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, much of that time has seen Ukrainians rather than Russians at the head of the CPSU. Had Boris Yeltsin, who took over as the Head of State and Government when the Russian Federation emerged, been more assertive, these lands would have been taken back by the Russian Federation when it was formed. However, Yeltsin was an alcohol addict who was in effect controlled by mafias, a group in which the Ukrainian variants were amply represented. They persuaded Yeltsin through his family members that the existing boundaries should stand, as Ukraine and Russia would remain close. They were until 2014, when regime change enthusiasts in Washington saw in Ukraine an effective battering ram to break down Russian resistance, thereby ensuring regime collapse and a return of the chaos that prevailed when Yeltsin was in charge. Russian-speaking Ukrainians were reduced to second class status before being pushed further down and being actively persecuted.
By February 2022, Vladimir Putin had had enough, and he invaded Ukraine, triggering a conflict which continues to this day. Until Putin gets back the territory that he regards as essential to safeguard Russia from a Ukrainian attack, he is unlikely to enter into a peace deal. Meanwhile, the UK and much of the EU appear set on spending an additional 800 billion euros on defence, thereby further heightening the scepticism of Putin about a durable peace. Should President Trump agree to what Putin sees as the minimum demands of the Russian Federation, and if Trump with his usual style succeeds in getting Zelenskyy to agree, peace may indeed be the harvest. Overall, such a settlement would be in the favour of the Atlantic Alliance, given the increasing risk of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Only China under Xi would gain from a continuation of the Ukraine war, which the CCP leadership regards as a useful diversion from a concentration of attention on the task of ensuring the defence of democracies in the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan. President Trump has shown that he has his own mind rather than go with the rest of the herd, and if he were to get Zelenskyy to agree, it would be a major accomplishment. As for rare earths, should Russia agree to an agreement on rare earths with the US, It would balance out the situation were the US-Ukraine rare earths deal to be signed. It would be a worthwhile price to pay for a peace that the entire world barring a single superpower would benefit from.