In due course of time, the Biden Administration is likely to make the United States the world leader yet again.
The global order entered a phase of enormous disruption about four years ago when Donald Trump was elected the US President in November 2016. Many Americans and perhaps all foreigners were surprised at the unexpected result of the presidential election in 2016. A larger majority of the American voters had expressed their support to Hillary Clinton by casting their vote, yet it was Donald Trump who won the election due to the peculiar electoral system in the United States.
The arithmetic of the Electoral College requirements can veto the mathematical outcome of popular votes count in electoral system in the US! Consequently, popular votes do not matter unless adequate electoral votes are won by a presidential candidate. In terms of popular vote counts so far, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has already been awarded with the largest ever number of popular votes in the history of American presidential elections. Yet the number of Electoral College votes necessary to win the election is to be ascertained even four days after the 3 November election.
In the midst of the ongoing counting of votes, Donald Trump wrongly claimed victory and flimsy court cases were filed in more than 40 states in the US. However, counting of votes on the basis of various State Laws cannot be legally stopped by anyone. Although none of the media outlets are able to give their early verdicts on the basis of the trend, it is increasingly clear now that Joe Biden will be the next US President. In any case, official declaration of results will be made only in the first week of January 2021. In the meantime, court cases or street demonstrations may hit the headlines, but ultimately there will be a change of guard in time. The President-elect, presumably Joe Biden, is most likely to be sworn in on 20 January 2020.
That simply means that the disruption of the global order is going to be halted in the course of next four years. Does that mean that it will be restoration of the old order that existed before 2016? Certainly not! However, the erosion will first stop. Even as the new administration struggles hard to address emergency situation at home and focus on combating the coronavirus, restore the economic dynamism, bridge the social and political divide, heal a wounded nation, give solace to the anxious immigrants, efforts will be initiated to re-inject confidence in the trans-Atlantic partnership, manage the difficult relationship with an ever aggressive China, bring in multilateralism and banish unilateral behaviour of the Trump Administration, give up isolationism and re-engage the country in addressing critical international issues that in any case US interests as well.
In due course of time, the Biden Administration is likely to respect the Paris Climate Accord and restore US leadership in climate change efforts; bring back the US to the World Health Organisation to address a pandemic that has affected the United States the most, play by the WTO rules in trade and investment issues, reconsider the US position on Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deftly handle the Iran nuclear deal issue, continue to fight international terrorism, and, more significantly, make the United States the world leader yet again.
The US approach to Japan, South Korea, Australia and other allies is likely to be friendlier than before and the US engagement in the Indo-Pacific region is expected to remain robust and perhaps more dynamic.
It is in the US interest to ensure that Indo-Pacific balance of power is not disturbed by the continuing aggressive steps taken by China in South China Sea, East China Sea, in South Asia, and, especially along the Sino-Indian border. It will be risky for the new US administration to focus too much on domestic issues and neglect critical developments in the Indo-Pacific. This is the region that bears on its bosom the potential to restore the global balance in trade and foreign investment, economic growth and comprehensive development.
While Donald Trump was a controversial figure on many areas, the way he was trying to handle China’s assertiveness and belligerent moves had some merit. The Joe Biden Administration is expected to manage China’s arrogance despite hard issues at home to be dealt with. Otherwise, the global order will not be based on multilateralism, but on Chinese hegemony that would involve predatory economic practices and patron-client relations between China and myriad smaller countries that have innocently joined the Belt and Road initiative of China.
Successive administrations in Washington, Democratic or Republican, have persistently built and expanded strategic partnership with India. It would be essential that India and the United States act as stout partners in shaping a new world order. The defence dialogue between the Pentagon and the Ministry of Defence established during the Obama administration and expanded to include Ministry of External Affairs and the State Department should actually be expanded further and be made more comprehensive.
Chintamani Mahapatra is Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.