Strengthening Quad cooperation is vital for safeguarding Indo-Pacific
stability amid intensifying strategic competition with China
Traditional geopolitics is based on two competing theories, the first that of control over the seas being vital for domination of the world. Not surprisingly, it was an Admiral of the US Fleet who came up with the theory, Admiral Mahan. The other is a theory discredited through its use by the National Socialist German Workers Party (Nazi) to justify its conquests. The theory is that a people need living space (Lebensraum) within the space dominated by it (Grossraum). Mahan is out of date, for today it is not domination of the seas but domination of technology that makes a country eligible to claim primacy. China is feared less for its (almost completely untested) military capability but because the control of over 90% of the global supply of rare earths belongs to China. Were its supply to stop or slow down, a country would find itself severely handicapped in several fields where advanced technology is critical be it automobiles or weaponry such as guided missiles and drones. Small wonder that the heads of key US technology companies accompanied President Trump to Beijing, to make sure that rhetoric by politicians notwithstanding, rare earth supplies from China do not stop. The latest victim of the cutoff of rare earth supplies from China is Japan, where Prime Minister Takaichi has angered CCP General Secretary Xi by saying that the defense of overall Japanese interests mandate the continued independence of Taiwan. Such a cutoff last took place about two decades ago, when then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe broke a postwar Japanese tradition of not visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, where the remains of fallen Japanese soldiers (including during World War II) are buried. Abe was murdered by an individual whose motives remain suspect, but who was groomed to hate Abe “for dragging Japan towards a war” by internet messaging originating from China but concealed by several layers of intermediate accounts.
Among the key capabilities of the PLA is its control over much of online messaging, especially in countries such as the US. A common tactic is to use algo warriors (writers of algorithms) to generate pronographic content that could be used to tempt policymakers at different levels to visit PLA-controlled massage parlours where explicit sexual acts committed by them get secretly filmed. Sex and money are the two primary instruments of persuasion used remotely by the PLA in its targets committing acts that are susceptible to blackmail. The theory of Mahan (“The geographical pivot of History”) has become outdated in a world where online space matters more than physical sea space. As for Lebensraum, relatively tiny Taiwan has a per capita income several times that of the PRC, while Japan is far ahead in GDP terms of much larger countries such as Brazil or even the Russian Federation. In the 21st century, the country that dominates the Indo-Pacific will achieve primacy over the rest of the world. Aware of this, Abe and Modi created the Quadrilateral Security Alliance (Quad) composed of the US, Australia, Japan and India. Although not made explicit, indeed denied several times especially by India, the Quad is central to the primacy of the democracies over the PRC autocracy in the heartland of the 21st century, the Indo-Pacific.
Given the erratic policy course adopted by US President Donald Trump, the Quad had apparently been pushed into the deep freeze by Trump. The meeting of the four Quad foreign ministers in India shows that the construct, the alliance, has been brought out of the Trumpian deep freeze, in large part because of the efforts of Vice-President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio and former Director of National Intelligence Gabbard. The meeting discussed a range of issues, and although not publicly noticed by the Quad Foreign Ministers, the dragon in the conference room was China under Xi. The latter has made no secret of his ambition to make China the primary power of the Indo-Pacific. It was telling that RT, the official Russian television channel, every now and again switched to images of Xi in military regalia inspecting his troops from an open vehicle in its reporting of the Quad meeting of Foreign Ministers that was taking place in Delhi. There is still doubt whether President Trump (assuming he is still in office) will attend the Quad Summit to be held in India towards the close of 2026. Even if not, the Summit should go ahead, for the Australian Prime Minister, the Japanese Prime Minister and the host, the Indian Prime Minister will be there. If President Trump cannot or will not come for fear of offending Xi Jinping, he could send Vice-President Vance instead. Indeed, Vance would be a much bigger value addition to the Quad Summit than his boss, President Trump. His record in the US Senate shows (as does that of Marco Rubio) his awareness of the efforts of Xi to establish primacy over the Indo-Pacific, and the need for the Quad to checkmate these. There have been some doubts expressed whether Rubio was carrying a letter from Trump for PM Modi, but whether he has or not, it matters very little. India is one of the four Great Powers, together with Russia, China and the US.
A Great Power does not need affirmations from outside of its importance, for it knows it already. The meeting of the Quad Foreign Ministers discussed a range of issues, together designed to bring the four countries together in the fields of technology in particular. Including locating alternative rare earth supplies should China continue its practice of downsizing or stopping supplies to select countries. Over the past decades, there has been much talk of India becoming an important source of rare earths, which the country possesses troves of, albeit unutilised.
It is time to move from planning to operationalising the strategy by India to itself become a rare earths superpower. A Quad Summit could discuss ways of getting this done. Indeed, the fact that the meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Quad met in New Delhi hosted by EAM Jaishankar is by itself news that would discomfit foes of India. A Quad Summit of the top leadership of the four partners within 2026 is the next step. The four can do what any one of them cannot by itself. In the unity of purpose and action of the Quad vests the security of the new Heartland, the Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister Modi has always been a wonderful host, and he needs to be once more, by holding the 2016 Quad Summit in India, whether there be Trump present or not. The protection of the democracies from domination by the authoritarians makes such a summit essential
