BJP still has the edge and with some deft steps can regain the narrative.
Back to back bypoll losses in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all of which have BJP governments, failure to form government in Karnataka, and discontent among NDA allies such as Shiv Sena, Janata Dal United (JDU) and Akali Dal have put the ruling Modi-Shah dispensation on the back-foot.
On the other hand, the “Opposition Unity Index” has been the talk of the larger part of Indian media. And hectic activity in the Congress camp to win friends among regional parties and at times play second or third fiddle to them is also being seen. Interesting is the Congress-BSP tie-up evolving for MP and Rajasthan Assembly elections, even without BSP asking for it.
But BJP still has the edge and with some deft steps can regain the narrative. Here are my ten suggestions as to how BJP can win back India for a second term for Modi.
ADVANCE LOK SABHA POLLS:
Bring ahead the general elections from April-May 2019 to October-November 2018, by six months, and try to club 10 to 12 Assembly elections as well. This will deny the much-needed time for the Opposition unity to take shape, will block anti BJP sentiments from swelling further, with a possible debacle in either Rajasthan or MP, will prevent the Opposition parties from sinking their historical rivalry and also prevent them from raising material resources to fight the elections which they are extremely starved of just now, especially after demonetisation and loss of power in most states. A win in LS and around 10 Assemblies will make BJP central to Indian politics for a decade more, and Modi-Shah at the core of this.
PATCH UP WITH ALLIES:
A conscious change in the style of functioning of BJP president Amit Shah has to be seen and experienced ahead, especially in accommodating the aspirations, demands and justified expectations of the three important regional partners who still command reasonable support in the states: JDU in Bihar, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab. Alongside, taking advantage of regional issues, BJP must strike partnerships with AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh, apart from protecting its bonhomie with smaller parties in the Northeast and Bihar.
LOOK AT PROS OF BYPOLL LOSSES:
The BJP cadre must be taught to understand that the bypoll losses are not that bad, so that their morale is not down. One, there is no correlation between a party’s performance in byelections and Assembly or Lok Sabha elections. Bypoll turnouts are traditionally low and that seems to be the major factor in BJP’s losses in Phulpur and Gorakhpur. Also, caste-community and local candidate factors become less important when the mode of election becomes presidential and the strengths and weaknesses of local candidates are subsumed within those of the supreme leader.
FIGHTING COMPLACENCY:
BJP is less likely to suffer from complacency issues after the recent electoral reverses. If the Lok Sabha elections are advanced by six months, every shred of complacency within the cadre-based BJP shall be shed, while the amorphous Opposition will still be figuring out its formula to combat the onslaught of the BJP-RSS humongous political-electoral machinery, presumably the largest in the world.
BJP’S CONTROL OF STATE GOVERNMENTS ABSOLUTE:
BJP holds power either on its own or with alliance partners in 20 of India’s 29 states. When Narendra Modi took oath as Prime Minister, the BJP was in power in just seven states. Data shows when the elections are hyper-localised, the BJP has performed poorly, but when the canvas has become bigger, the saffron unit has invariably held an advantage. Today, the ruling party has far stronger control over the election machinery, state police and Central paramilitary forces, Intelligence Bureau and Central Bureau of Investigation, and a “disproportionate” influence on the Election Commission, etc., to “smoothen the rough edges” during a keenly contested poll.
USURPING ELECTORAL NARRATIVE AND SETTING TONALITY OF CAMPAIGN:
BJP has its own story of the achievements of 48 months of governance ready and in public domain with a dashboard of daily progress. On the other side, the alternative narrative, governance perspective, common minimum programme, and research to counter BJP’s claims are not ready with the Opposition. This is the time for BJP to strike the possible gold for the next five years. And it is possible to do with a narrative repeated constantly of an honest but strong-willed hard-working man versus a bunch of opportunists. For this reason, Modi’s incentive is to “Presidentialise” the Lok Sabha election on leadership while the Opposition’s objective is to localise it.
CONSTITUENCY SPECIFIC DEVELOPMENT MANIFESTO:
Alongside, also localise the election with constituency specific development manifesto to take the campaign to strike at the core of the usual strategy of regional parties. If the work done in each Constituency represented by a BJP MP today, and failures of other party MPs in other constituencies, added to the needs of each with specific plans for them are documented and put forth through its own social media and sections of the mainstream media, BJP can hit at the core of regional parties.
RAM JANMABHOOMI VERDICT, BUT RIOTS AVOIDED:
The verdict on Ram Janmabhoomi is due anytime and the ruling party will do itself a favour to take all possible steps to get a favourable Supreme Court position on this, which can lead to “stand vindicated” campaign by BJP, but carefully avoiding any full-scale riot.
DEFINITIVE STEPS AGAINST TERROR AND ITS EXPORT:
Terror on India-Pakistan border and skirmishes from the Pakistani side have been an ongoing story across the entire Modi rule, in spite of one round of surgical strikes across the borders. Another round of similar strikes and with some tangible visible results may serve bilateral and electoral purposes both. Alongside, if any possible action, from arrest to elimination can be done of India’s enemy number one, Dawood Ibrahim, even using Mossad of Israel, it will have an immense impact on a presidential form of elections ahead.
CULTIVATING A MORE ACCESSIBLE IMAGE OF MODI:
A 21st century leader cannot be remote. Hence, Prime Minister Modi, going beyond Mann Ki Baat and mygov.in, needs to be seen more accessible, addressing press, attending public functions, interacting with lobbies and groups, felicitating achievers in various fields, brainstorming with subject area experts and reaching out to public in general in mass meetings.
Prof Ujjwal K. Chowdhury is currently the School Head, School of Media, Pearl Academy, Delhi and Mumbai.