During his campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly promised to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, often claiming he could do so “in 24 hours” or even before taking office. He stated his good relationships with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy would allow him to negotiate a peace deal by bringing them together. He consistently maintained that he had the ability to broker a quick settlement and stop the fighting. He said that he would speak to both leaders, get them in the same room, and settle the war, which he described as “needlessly, so stupidly” happening. He also linked his ability to end the war to preventing a potential World War III.
After taking over as President, Trump’s administration toned down its ambitions and stated that its goal was to achieve a lasting ceasefire within the first 100 days of his presidency. Trump indicated that a peace deal might involve Ukraine conceding territory to Russia, though he later modified his stance. Despite his efforts, Donald Trump is not succeeding in bringing peace between Russia and Ukraine, and the war is going on with Russia escalating drone and missile attacks on civilian populations.
Trump’s peace efforts have reached an impasse, and recently a planned summit with Vladimir Putin in Budapest was cancelled due to hardline Russian demands, specifically regarding Ukrainian territory concessions. Trump announced he had called off a summit with Vladimir Putin in Budapest because he considered it a “waste of time”. The summit was initially proposed by Trump in mid-October 2025 following a phone call with Putin regarding the war in Ukraine. However, plans for the meeting were shelved after a subsequent call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made it clear that Russia was unwilling to shift from its hardline demands, including an immediate ceasefire and territorial concessions from Ukraine. When confirming the cancellation to reporters, Trump stated: “I don’t want to have a wasted meeting; I don’t want to have a waste of time.”
Thus, Trump has begun to realise that unlike what he had first thought, it is difficult to end the Russia-Ukraine war primarily because both sides have irreconcilable core demands and believe they can still achieve their objectives through continued fighting. The conflict has become an existential struggle for national identity and security, making compromise extremely difficult.
Opposing territorial claims are the most significant hurdle. Russia has formally annexed Crimea and four other regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) and demands international recognition of these annexations as a condition for peace. Ukraine’s constitution and national sentiment insist on reclaiming all its internationally recognized territory, including Crimea and the annexed regions; ceding land is politically unacceptable.
Despite heavy costs, Russia’s goals remain largely unchanged from the outset of the invasion. These include preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, imposing sweeping political changes in Kyiv, and “demilitarizing” Ukraine to the point where it cannot defend itself. Ukraine is unwilling to renounce its right to join alliances like NATO or to limit the size of its military, viewing these as essential for its long-term survival and sovereignty. Historical experience with Russia has led to a deep mistrust of any security guarantees offered by Moscow.
Both sides believe they can still win the war or, at least, improve their position on the battlefield. Russia continues to believe it can win a war of attrition, while Ukraine, with Western support, hopes to withstand the Russian onslaught until a more favourable political or military situation emerges. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the war has become an existential fight for his imperialist legacy, making it difficult to concede without appearing defeated. In Ukraine, national identity has intensified, making territorial concessions politically impossible for President Zelenskyy’s government.
While Western support has been crucial for Ukraine’s defence, differing approaches to peace talks (e.g., US vs some European positions) and the complexities of enforcing sanctions add layers of difficulty to a unified diplomatic front.
In conclusion, until one or both sides perceive the costs of continuing the war to be higher than the costs of compromise, or a decisive military shift occurs, a lasting peace agreement or even a formal ceasefire remains unlikely. The most likely near-term scenario is a prolonged conflict or a “frozen conflict” rather than a comprehensive peace treaty. A prolonged Russia-Ukraine war will lead to severe global consequences, including a persistent global food crisis, ongoing energy market volatility, heightened geopolitical instability with a potential new arms race, and immense humanitarian suffering. The international community can continue to support peace efforts, but forcing a resolution on an unwilling Russia without direct military intervention remains a complex challenge.
Prabhu Dayal is a retired ambassador of India.
