Rahul Gandhi’s Voter Adhikar Yatra has without doubt enhanced his status as a leader, while putting the Election Commission of India on the back foot, forcing it to come out with clarifications regarding deleted voters. The issue has found resonance all over the country and, according to some analysts, it has projected the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha as an alternative to the BJP.
However, the matter is not likely to make much impact in Bihar, where the elections are due in the next two months, since there are some other, more pressing issues that continue to dominate the political landscape there. The question of Rahul being an alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi may figure in discussions and debates in television studios, but it is the people of India who shall finally decide who would be the primary leader, and not the political analysts.
Rahul has been working extremely hard and even in Bihar, his rallies have been attracting huge crowds. As per reports pouring in from the state, even the meetings of Jan Suraaj, a party launched by Prashant Kishor last year, are well attended, though it is a different matter whether the exercise would yield political dividends when the actual voting takes place.
The Congress has suffered in the past several elections because it does not have a robust organisational structure. And so far as Jan Suraaj is concerned, its ability to convert attendance into votes would largely depend on how its volunteers reach out to the voters at the grassroots.
Those who have been following Bihar polls for several decades believe that if the Jan Suraaj party is able to put up an impressive performance, it may be able to take away a section of Forward votes in particular from the BJP—something which appears most unlikely at this point.
Rahul’s emphasis on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voters’ lists by the EC, shortly before the polls, has found resonance in many parts of the country, where people have started expressing their apprehensions regarding the fair functioning of the poll body. It is something which is at the allegations stage right now, and unless established, it would be premature to draw any firm conclusions on this charge.
The BJP, by coming out in support of the EC, has perhaps jumped the gun and should have maintained its distance from the controversy, unless its involvement had been found. Although the subject has been raised in Bihar, its echo is in other states, especially those like Maharashtra and Haryana, where the Congress had alleged wrongdoing by the EC and questioned the final outcome. Overall, the controversy is neither good for the EC nor for the country, which needs to keep its faith in the impartial functioning of Constitutional bodies.
In Bihar, SIR is not on top of the issues likely to impact the polls. Unemployment, education, migration, and law and order are much higher in the priority list of voters. While Rahul’s appeal on SIR is aimed at the entire country, it is Tejashwi Yadav and some other state leaders who are keeping the focus on the more politically important issues in Bihar.
For some odd reasons, the BJP functionaries of the state are not as vocal as they have been over the past few years, and it has been left to the central leadership to carry the political battle to the rival camps. PM Modi, as always, is spearheading the campaign and has already made it known that the electoral battle is going to be combative.
There have been many questions raised regarding the fitness of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, but his presence and the involvement of his party cadres are extremely important for the NDA if it has to form the government again. In all surveys, Nitish continues to be the number one choice for the top position, even though there is strong speculation that in case of an NDA win, the state may have its first BJP CM.
The large gatherings at Rahul’s rallies as well as in those of the Jan Suraaj party may not get converted into votes eventually, but they do provide an indication that people are looking for alternatives. These alternatives could be interpreted as freedom from both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar’s RJD and JD(U), respectively.
Whether this would happen remains a million-dollar question, since in the end, caste combinations and permutations would eventually determine who would be the victor. Everyone is aware that Bihar has the most complex caste structure, and the people by and large are among the most politically conscious voters in the country.
As of now, the Congress–RJD combine has the support of Yadavs, Muslims, and some other communities, but the NDA continues to enjoy the backing of the rest and is over 50%, if the surveys are to be believed.
An important issue which has always been there is the migration of people to other states in search of livelihood. The migration matter is also an admission of the inability of successive Bihar governments to provide meaningful employment and work to its people within the state, thus forcing them to go elsewhere in search of new avenues.
The ongoing campaign has certainly brought Rahul Gandhi onto the centre stage. But for the Congress to make any meaningful difference, it has to first strengthen its organisational network and empower local leaders. Between us.
