Fast changing developments in the border state of Punjab are likely to define the outcome of the Assembly polls, that could be taking place as early as November-December this year. The Aam Aadmi Party, which is in power, is expected to face a challenge from a divided Congress and other adversaries, the Shriomani Akali Dal, the BJP and Waris Punjab De, a group headed by Lok Sabha MP, Amritpal Singh. There is speculation that the Akalis and the BJP which had parted company, could reunite ahead of the elections, thus forming a formidable bloc. Even though top BJP leaders including the Prime Minister himself had indicated that the saffron brigade would be fielding candidates for all the 117 seats, the recent events are pointing towards a re-alignment of forces. On Friday, SAD chief Sukhbir Singh Badal met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the national capital and re-turned to Chandigarh soon after. He is understood to have also met Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, who is the BJP in-charge of Punjab. The meetings have triggered a fresh round of activity in the state and workers of both the parties, which are former allies, are expecting that there would be a tie-up in the mu-tual interest of both sides who have been sitting in Opposition for a decade. However, there is also this fear in the Akali circles that if the party were to join hands with the BJP in wake of the farmer’s agitation and the Gen-Z protests, it would suffer and the hardcore Sikh vote could shift towards Amrit Pal Singh, who has influence in areas around Tarn Taran. The Congress, which was at one point expected to wrest the government from AAP has considerably been weakened by its own infighting, with the high command unable to enforce any discipline.
Followers of former Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi and the current PCC president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, have been clashing publicly. Heated exchanges between the two factions were witnessed in the presence of Bhupesh Baghel, the party in-charge. If this continues, the Congress would find it ex-tremely hard to put up a good performance. Another development, which has given rise to speculation is the praise showered by Rahul Gandhi on former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh. Asked during his re-cent interactive programme as to who was his favourite BJP leader, he named the Captain, referring to him also as “Uncle” and an eminent “war historian” in the same breath. Logically, the Captain should have nothing left to do with the Congress after his unceremonious exit nearly five years ago, but then as Devendra Dwivedi, the political adviser to P.V. Narasimha Rao and other Congress stalwarts would frequently comment that politics has its own logic and its own illogic as well. Interestingly, Amarinder Singh had tweeted in March that Rahul Gandhi was amongst the first persons to send him birthday greetings. There are some analysts who while admitting that the Captain was no longer a force, point out that he continues to be the tallest leader of the state so far as stature goes. In the event he returns to the Congress, he could help in bringing about some semblance and may play a major role in deter-mining who its CM face would be, in case the party wins. There are others, who also believe that the Captain wishes to clear the way for the political future of his daughter, who is going to be his political heir. He realises that if she is in the BJP, it would be difficult for her to win from Patiala and thus may be making moves for her sake. In the confusion which surrounds the political scenario of the state, Amritpal Singh and Waris Punjab De would be a strong factor in certain seats, thus upsetting both the Congress and the Akalis. The difference between the 2022 Assembly polls and now is that there were three major contestants—the Congress, Akalis and AAP—at the time.
Now there are five, if the BJP and the Akalis contest separately. The Congress high command appears to be oblivious of this and if recent developments are to be taken into consideration, it is fighting to lose rather than win. On Friday, to rub salt into wounds and to send a clear signal that Manish Tewari was not considered a part of the Punjab PCC, the Congress constituted a political affairs committee of the Chandigarh territory, declaring him as a member along with Pawan Bansal and many others. The signal to him is extremely clear that he should stay clear of Punjab even though he has represented both Lud-hiana and Anandpur Saheb in Parliament in the past. Many analysts believe that he should have ideally been the Pun-jab PCC president in order to send a reassuring message to the Hindu community in the state. Simultaneously, the party could have changed its Leader of Opposition in the Assembly, appointing Rana Gurjeet Singh or Sukhpal Kh-aira instead of Pratap Singh Bajwa. However, it is a call for the party high command to take. One of the reasons why Channi, under whose leadership the Congress had lost the 2022 polls is flexing muscles is because he is the only Dalit leader of some consequence in the battle which is otherwise dominated by Jat Sikhs in all parties. Whatever is happening is suiting AAP, and while political churning is taking place, both Bhagwant Mann and Arvind Keriwal appear to be in a comfortable position. But for how long? Between us.
