Trump’s sensitivity to economic fallout has made him receptive to Xi’s warnings
President Donald Trump’s recent posture towards the Taiwan Strait reveals a striking inversion of responsibility: he appears more concerned about Taipei destabilizing the cross-strait dynamic than Beijing’s increasingly aggressive manoeuvres. This framing is not accidental. It is the product of a sustained campaign by Xi Jinping to convince Trump that Taiwan is the provocateur, while China is merely the aggrieved guardian of stability.
Xi has repeatedly emphasized the One China principle, presenting it as a non-negotiable foundation of peace. By framing Taiwan’s democratic assertions—whether arms purchases, diplomatic outreach, or independence rhetoric—as reckless provocations, Xi has shifted Trump’s lens. Instead of seeing Beijing’s military build-up and coercive diplomacy as destabilizing, Trump now views Taiwan’s actions as the trigger for potential conflict. This is classic psychological framing: redefine the problem so the adversary appears as the source of instability.
Trump’s sensitivity to economic fallout has made him receptive to Xi’s warnings. Beijing has suggested that U.S. arms sales or overt support for Taiwan could spark “an extremely dangerous situation.” The implicit threat is not only military escalation but also economic retaliation. Xi’s narrative plays on Trump’s instinct to avoid market shocks and preserve trade gains, making Taiwan’s assertiveness seem like an unnecessary risk to U.S. interests.
China’s success in peeling away Taiwan’s diplomatic allies and blocking its participation in international forums reinforces Xi’s argument. Each time Taiwan is excluded, Trump sees evidence that the world accepts Beijing’s framing. This isolation makes Taiwan appear marginal and destabilizing when it resists, rather than a legitimate democracy defending its sovereignty.
The danger of Trump adopting Xi’s narrative is profound. It risks turning Taiwan into a bargaining chip rather than a partner, undermining U.S. credibility in Asia. Allies like Japan and South Korea watch closely: if Washington accepts Beijing’s framing, they fear America may also compromise their security under pressure. Moreover, it erodes the moral clarity of supporting a vibrant democracy against authoritarian coercion.
Trump’s concern about Taiwan “destabilizing” the Strait is less a reflection of objective reality than of Xi’s success in shaping his perceptions. By redefining Taiwan’s democratic actions as provocations, Xi has managed to shift the burden of stability away from Beijing’s military assertiveness and onto Taipei’s survival instincts. The result is a dangerous distortion—one that risks emboldening Beijing while leaving Taiwan more vulnerable than ever.
*Khedroob Thondup, a geopolitical analyst, is the nephew of the Dalai Lama.
