The turbulent year is about to come to an end. We would like to highlight the key themes and issues that have defined the year and how they may shape the discourse and agenda for the coming year.
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Rebalancing and realignment of world order: transition from unipolar to multipolar world order. This year and the year to come will see signs of the balancing act that India and other countries must perform between its relationship with Moscow and Beijing on one side and ties with Washington and EU on the other. In this era of fast realignments and pivot by countries, we will see a greater acceleration towards a multipolar world where the US retreat from global dominance as well as emergence of regiopowers such as China, India, Russia, Brazil simultaneously will shape a new world order.
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Damage to America’s soft power and increase in its hard power by Trump Presidency. The US under Trump presidency has effectively shown America’s unilateralism on various issues. Be it undermining diplomacy at the UN, withdrawal from the climate talks, or boycotting the G20 summit in South Africa, the hawkish and abrupt change in US foreign policy from more influential to authoritarian stance has done more harm than good to America’s image as a soft power and as a champion of a “liberal international order” it so professed for decades. Its unilateral approach of apparent decoupling from Quad and Indo-Pacific is yet another signal that countries cannot reply on US policies and must fend for themselves in an era of threats and clamorous geopolitical order. World sees America today as strong but not respected. Moreover, the push against immigrants specially in the US but also rising in Europe might redefine the future of talent flow that has for long defined one of the pillars of free globalized world.
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Leveraging trade and tariffs as a geoeconomic weaponry. Trump have slapped tariffs on most countries including friends and foes and tried to renegotiate trade deals with countries one-on-one rather than going through WTO norms and principles. Thus, undermining the legitimacy of WTO. In so doing, US has adopted the transaction path of concessions rather than genuine trade negotiations with other countries. The upcoming year may see further escalation in conflicts and unresolved agendas. While Ukraine conflicts seem to be prolonged, other conflicts have largely been restricted to shorter duration for e.g. Gaza, India-Pakistan. In addition, there are unresolved issues such as Taiwan, South China sea and other border clashes all these might flare up again. In this context tariffs have also been used by US as a carrot and stick in trying to mediate, but in most cases unsuccessfully resolved conflicts between nations be it, Russia-Ukraine, Thailand-Cambodia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. This frustration is nothing but a signal that the old US dominated world is in tatters.
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Rise of Technological Sovereignty. We are seeing a greater race to develop and control key technologies and resources. Whether it’s the quest for developing semiconductors and AI, or about the energy security of the countries that are pushing them towards green and renewable energies. In addition, the volatility in markets that have led to strengthening of cryptocurrency as a parallel alternative investment will continue to be the case next year. Hence, we will see greater thrust and zealous protection and control of data and information towards achieving AI and tech supremacy that will be leveraged as a technopolitical tool by major powers, particularly the rivalry between US and China. Furthermore, natural resources such as rare earth, lithium and other critical minerals as well as geographic location will accentuate geoeconomic dominance in the years to come. A case in point is the article circle often touted as the ‘Polar Silk Road’ largely under the influence of Russia as an alternative route for shipping can open another area of geopolitical contestation with EU and US.
We are seeing and shall witness a more unequal world. Crony capitalism even in free and democratic markets have fuelled economic discontent leading to protests and anger among public that may lead to social and political turmoil. Economic inequality is on the rise in the world with rich becoming richer and poor remaining poor. Many countries are seeing jobless growth, corruption and rising state capitalism. We are also witnessing countries even with democracies that are working like a single man run autocracy that remains the flavour of the year.
To conclude, we will live in a volatile and uncertain world with challenging times and issues berefting globalization and changing the world order, be it ongoing conflicts, tariff wars, quest for technological dominance, curbs on immigration to name a few. Year 2026 will unfortunately may not be that different and may pose greater sociopolitical and economic challenges for the world order. So, fasten your seat belt.
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Dr Mohit Anand is Professor of International Business and Strategy at EMLYON Business School, France. Rajesh Mehta is a leading consultant and columnist working on market entry, innovation and public policy
