The Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be pursuing an uncharted path in Punjab, with its organizing secretary B.L. Santhosh announcing that the saffron brigade shall contest all the 117 seats in the state on its own. A similar declaration had been made by Home Minister Amit Shah, sometime ago, but since then a lot of developments have taken place, which many believed would compel the leadership to change its strategy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a couple of weeks ago, had met Shiromani Akali Dal chief, Sukhbir Singh Badal, triggering speculation that the two parties would once again come together to contest the polls, as they had done multiple times in the past. The BJP and Akali workers have been out of power for over ten years and would certainly wish to be in the driving seat.
A few days ago, Harsimrat Badal, the lone Akali Lok Sabha MP from the state, had also provided sufficient indications that there was going to be an agreement, following which many of her supporters were convinced that she would be re-inducted in the Modi government in the impending re-shuffle. However, Santhosh said something else. Anyone who has followed Punjab in the past knows that the BJP does not have enough strength to contest the polls, and could lose badly if this idea was pursued any further. The question is why should the BJP so openly spurn the Akalis, after making overtures earlier? Does the leadership want the Akalis to believe that the alliance may take place, and in the end after they stop making their own efforts, the BJP switches its strategy and enters into an agreement with “Waris Punjab De”, the outfit led by Khadoor Saheb, MP, Amritpal Singh? Amritpal has sufficient following in several key areas, and could take away the Panthic vote and also the vote of those leaning towards extremism. There has always been a suspicion in the state, that he has already an understanding with the BJP, and thus his entry into the Assembly elections may happen sooner than later.
The Akalis have been driven to the point of desperation and need clarity as time seems to be running out. The BJP on its part is delusional since without the Sikh support, it cannot expect any outcome which would be in its favour. The confusion in the Akali camp is bound to benefit the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which is in the pole position in the state with Bhagwant Mann and Arvind Kejriwal seemingly in full control of the narrative. The Congress, which was poised to provide the main challenge to the AAP, is a divided lot, and its internal factionalism fanned by its state in-charge, Bhupesh Baghel, has diminished its chances of making a comeback. There has been a demand for replacement of Amarinder Singh Raja Warring as the Pradesh president and Pratap Singh Bajwa as the Leader of the Opposition. Instead of using tact and addressing the emerging situation, Baghel has been very impractical in dealing with the situation. Ideally speaking, Manish Tewari should have been made the PCC president, something which appears difficult in view of a certain top leader not inclined towards him.
Other than that, either Rana Gurjeet Singh or Sukhpal Khaira could have been appointed the Leader of Opposition, thus controlling the growing dissent in the party. The Congress high command must realise that if it loses out in Punjab, it shall have a lot to worry about. Out of all the states which are likely to go to polls in the next few months, Punjab was its best bet. If it is unable to make its mark, its national ambitions may also be impacted. For the BJP, it is more important to keep the Congress out, rather than win, something which is improbable if the party goes alone. The BJP plan in Punjab lacks political acumen and in the wake of protests by farmers and Gen Z, the saffron effort is already facing limitations. The BJP’s main focus in any case would be on Uttar Pradesh, which would hold the key for the Parliamentary elections as well. Yes, there are problems that have surfaced regarding factionalism, but Yogi Adityanath is certainly the most trusted mascot for the party. In Punjab, AAP could be repeating its government in the face of a divided opposition, and if it manages to win a successive election, Kejriwal would start focusing on Delhi, where the current city government is confronting a lot criticism on various fronts. Arvind Kejriwal has national ambitions as well and his party could follow its success in other places as well. The Congress is the one which has a lot to worry about, and Rahul Gandhi should focus on his strategy here, instead of leaving the work to others who lack the ability. Between us.
