Regardless of the outcome of the Bengal Assembly polls, Trinamool supremo and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is likely to shift the focus of her politics from Kolkata to New Delhi. The 71-year-old veteran leader, known to be a street fighter, with close connect with the grassroots, could emerge as the unquestioned face of the Opposition during the next Parliamentary polls. In other words, it could be Mamata Banerjee and not Rahul Gandhi, as most people in the Congress would have expected, who would be the principal challenger to the Prime Minister whose popularity remains more than that of any of his contemporaries in the current political scenario.
During the poll campaign, after being repeatedly pushed to the brink by the BJP, she had declared that she would now be working to unseat the Central government, a task not easy given the robust organizational network of the saffron brigade, and the immense resources available to it. Besides, the BJP under the overall leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah has become an invincible polling machine, so well-versed in outwitting its opponents. However, the battle-scarred Mamata, who had outclassed the Leftists in their political citadel in Bengal after 34 years in 2011, is someone who has firm commitment to her ideological beliefs as well as determination which is both proven and unflinching. On top of that she is a Brahmin, a factor that could alter many caste equations that exist in favour of the ruling dispensation, which has enjoyed the backing of upper castes as well as OBCs, cutting across the country, and is well versed in exploiting the differences.
A major reason why the Congress, has been lagging in setting the political narrative is that it has ignored the upper castes and does not have any backing amongst its traditional vote bank comprising Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims. On top of that, the grand old party has done little to consolidate its organizational network, which remains the key reason for its under-performance in elections and continues to haunt it every time. The allegations of “vote chori” levelled against the BJP and the Election Commission, are an expression of frustration, arising out of the lack of ability to have foot soldiers on the ground, and in many instances, despite having huge support, the party has been unable to convert it into votes, because of dismal micro-management at the booth level.
Although Rahul Gandhi, as the Leader of the Opposition and the primary Congress leader, has been adopting an aggressive stand against the BJP and its allies, and continues to be amongst the very few leaders of the time who continuously are critical of the policies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he somehow has been found lacking in consistency when it comes to political activities on the ground. There is no doubt that the Gandhis are a huge political phenomenon in the country but they have been losing ground after every election, and need to take a back seat for the time being, in order to catch their breath. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s interventions in the Lok Sabha have been noticed by one and all, and she has a political class and pedigree which sets her apart. However, from the Opposition’s point of view, a proven warrior with mass support and experience which Mamata has, is someone who could find the backing of other leaders.
The apprehension, in the minds of regional leaders, has always been that the Congress, like the BJP, was not conducive to their growth, and in the end, the larger party can always replace it when the time comes. The fear may be true to some degree, but the present-day Congress is itself struggling to remain relevant, and till it recharges its batteries, needs someone else to take the focus away from its limitations and take the BJP head-on. This someone is none other Mamata Banerjee, who also enjoys the goodwill amongst top leaders such as Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, Sharad Pawar, M.K. Stalin, Arvind Kejriwal and countless others. After the kind of political assault she has been subjected to by the well-oiled BJP machinery, Mamata Banerjee is like a wounded tigress, willing to have a no-holds barred battle with her adversaries. Significantly, she has, during the campaign, while taking pot shots at the BJP and its leaders, has refrained from attacking the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. A section of this outfit, which is Brahmin-driven, has always believed in Mamata’s abilities, primarily because she is the only leader who has considerable influence over the Muslim community and also since she is anti-Communists.
For the RSS, the anti-Left dimension is not only important but has been the meeting point with its political adversaries in the past as well. Shortly before the 1979 Parliamentary polls, the late Sanjay Gandhi and the RSS reached an understanding on the common meeting ground, that they were both anti-communists. The supreme irony is that many of those who are closely associated with Rahul Gandhi in the current times, and about whom the rest of the Congress party shares a dim view, are also from either leftist backgrounds, or are those who have scant understanding and knowledge of what the Congress has stood for. Mamata is a pragmatic leader and despite her political whims and fancies could adjust to the political compulsions. The Opposition is at present fighting an existential battle against very strong opponents. The requirement is of a proven leader. Win or lose, Mamata is set to be the Opposition nucleus. Between us.
