In the world of Donald Trump, there are winners and losers, and the winner takes all. The problem is that it is the US that is the biggest loser.
Less than a year before World War II ended, the Bretton Woods structure took shape, and a new world order was created with the US at the apex and the Soviet Union not very far behind. In just a couple of years since Trump 2.0 began, that structure of authority and trust has been dismantled together with faith in the US as a reliable security provider. Canada, much of “free” (of Soviet influence) Europe and the United States were linked in the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO). Over nearly two years, the other NATO partners have begun to assemble a security structure of their own, independent of the United States.
As a corollary, the European Union has offered Canada the status of an Associate Member, thereby seeking to link that continent-sized country with itself, now that US-Canada ties have deteriorated as a consequence of Trumpian actions that fly in the face of any notion of Canada being the closest ally of the US, with a free border between the two countries. Mexico has grown wary of Trump, and the way in which the Wild West-style operations of the Immigration and Control Enforcement (ICE) agency have been functioning, anger against the White House is incandescent within the Latino community.
Until the Iran war was started by Trump almost a year ago, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries saw the US as their security provider. No more. The gyrations of the ongoing war between the US and Iran have shaken their faith in the US as the main international guarantor of their security from attack. The way in which the United States has washed its hands of the Houthi war on the Saudis has shaken the Kingdom. In effect, Trump told Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman that he was on his own, even as the Houthis attacked Riyadh and most shocking of all, Mecca for the first time in that city known as part of Al Haramain Sharifain together with Medina. The Two Holy Sites of Islam, of which the Saudi Royal Family is the Protector.
Meanwhile, further east, the Quadrilateral Security Alliance appears to be on life support, with the US no longer being the lynchpin of the alliance. Japan and South Korea fret that they may need to confront the People’s Liberation Army on their own, while Taiwan prepares itself for defence against the PRC sans the US. In his recent United Nations General Assembly speech, Trump was unconvincing, painting a roseate view of US capabilities that was at odds with US actions. Given the disproportion in offensive capabilities, it was expected that the war with Iran would be brief, ending in a defeat for the IRGC that would trigger a revolt against the clerical regime inside Iran itself, the optimal method of regime change.
Instead, the way in which the US military has conducted its war with Iran has emboldened the IRGC and dismayed longstanding allies such as Israel and the GCC. The US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegsheth appears to be spending more time on his coiffure than on ensuring a successful outcome to the war with Iran. A first class military has been reduced to near chaos because of such leadership at the Pentagon. Once he assumed charge as President of the US for the second time, Trump systematically replaced veteran administrators with rookies whose only qualification was (is) that they were vocal supporters of Trump during the last US Presidential elections in 2024.
The Inter-Agency network that injected quality and rationality into the functioning of the US Government (USG) has been gutted, with vocal Trump backers replacing veterans. The new entrants with little or no experience in the field have replaced others who have spent years understanding and mastering the complexities of running the USG, especially key departments such as the Department of State and the Department of Defense. The Republican Party has woken up to the danger facing the Grand Old Party (GOP) in the midterm elections. More and more Republicans are shunning contact with Trump. Indeed, at an unprecedented midterm Republican National Convention held a few weeks ago, most of the seats for the audience were empty.
The Gold Medal for being the most useful of the numerous Useful Idiots of the PRC ought to go to US Secretary of Commerce Scott Bessent, who made known his intention to collaborate with the PRC in reining in Artificial Intelligence development. Xi Jinping would like nothing better than to have the security door of US AI development opened for him to exploit. Such a partnership would be entirely one way, with information helpful to AI development flowing to the PLA, and disinformation flowing to the US. Despite elements in the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) being aware of the risks, these have been shut out of the information providing loop by the Trumpians who are now their superiors.
In the world of Donald Trump, there are winners and losers, and the winner takes all. It is a Zero Sum approach with a vengeance. His speech at the UNGA made that clear. The problem is that it is the US that is the biggest loser. Tariffs and similar measures including ill-planned conflicts are sending consumer prices skyrocketing, and public discontent growing. Even the Republican Party has had enough of Trump 2.0. Wisely, Vice-President J.D. Vance is distancing himself from Trump policies as he quietly seeks to be the Republican standard bearer in the next Presidential elections, adding nuance and more to his differences of approach with Trump, aware that the US President cannot throw out the Vice-President.
Should the Midterm Meltdown feared by the Republicans take shape, President Trump is certain to be the subject of a Motion of Impeachment by the new Democratic Party majority, assisted by some Republicans eager to show their opposition to a President who is becoming the least popular in US history. The Trump Presidency is literally going up in flames where the Persian Gulf is concerned, as also the more and more Houthi-controlled Red Sea. The metamorphosis of Donald Trump from effective campaigner to disastrous President will be the subject of future study. For now, citizens and allies of the US need to await the US November midterms, which they expect will result in the premature exit of Trump from the White House.
Cleaning up the mess in the USG left behind by Trump may be too time consuming a task for his successor, J.D. Vance. Or not. For Vance has risen from the embers of poverty and family troubles with addiction to get first a devoted wife in Usha and then the US Vice-Presidency. The people of the US, whatever be their ethnicity or religion are paying the price for the Trump Meltdown in price rise and officially sanctioned killings via ICE. The Trump era is ideal for the PRC led by Xi, who by now shrugs off verbal sallies by the White House and builds what he hopes will be a smooth path to a takeover of Taiwan in 2027, so as to become the global master in AI and in tech, the island country being master of the game in both. However, that fence may prove difficult to climb if the Trump Presidency ends. Which is why the greatest secret well-wisher of the continuation of a Trump Presidency is CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping
