A satellite launched by NASA more than a decade ago is expected to return to Earth soon. The spacecraft, called Van Allen Probe A, has been orbiting the planet for nearly 14 years and is now predicted to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere within the next day or two. The space agency earlier estimated that the probe would begin re-entry around 7:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday (March 10), though the timing could vary by as much as 24 hours.
NASA Satellite Crash: What is the Satellite Returning to Earth?
The spacecraft is part of the Van Allen Probes mission, which included two satellites — Van Allen Probe A and Van Allen Probe B. Both were launched on August 30, 2012, to study the radiation belts around Earth, commonly known as the Van Allen radiation belts. These belts are rings of high-energy particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field. The probes travelled repeatedly through these radiation zones to collect valuable scientific data about space weather and radiation around our planet.
NASA Satellite Crash: Will the Satellite Cause Damage on Earth?
According to NASA, the risk of damage on the ground is extremely low. Most of the more than 600-kg spacecraft is expected to burn up due to intense heat while passing through Earth’s atmosphere. However, some small components may survive the re-entry. Scientists estimate that the chance of debris harming a person is about one in 4,200, which the agency describes as minimal.
NASA Satellite Crash: Why is the Satellite Falling Earlier Than Expected?
The mission for Van Allen Probe A officially ended in 2019 when the spacecraft ran out of fuel. Since then, both probes have been slowly drifting in orbit. Originally, scientists believed the satellites would re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around 2034. However, increased solar activity has caused Earth’s atmosphere to expand slightly, creating more drag on satellites in orbit. This extra friction has pulled the spacecraft down faster than expected. Meanwhile, its twin satellite, Van Allen Probe B, is not expected to re-enter the atmosphere until around 2030 or later
NASA Satellite Crash: Where Could the Debris Land?
Experts say it is difficult to predict the exact location of the re-entry. Jonathan McDowell, a retired astrophysicist from the Harvard–Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics, explained that the satellite is descending in an elliptical orbit and will hit the atmosphere at speeds of around 17,000 miles per hour. Because of this, it is nearly impossible to determine where any surviving fragments might land. However, scientists believe there is a strong possibility that any debris could fall into open ocean areas, which cover most of the planet.
NASA Satellite Crash: Monitoring the Re-entry
Both NASA and the United States Space Force are tracking the satellite closely and will provide updates as it approaches re-entry. While such events may sound alarming, experts say satellite re-entries are fairly common and rarely pose any real danger to people on Earth.
