NEW DELHI: With its win in Delhi, which marked the culmination of nearly three decades of effort to come to power, the BJP strategists are now hoping to replicate this success in Bihar, where elections are scheduled in less than eight months
Bihar-based BJP leaders sense the possibility of forming the government in the state for the first time with their own Chief Minister, as incumbent Nitish Kumar has announced that he will not be active in electoral politics anymore. This suggests that if the National Democratic Alliance comes to power after the Assembly elections, a BJP CM will likely take the helm.
With the JDU being an individual centric party, it is likely to face huge challenges once its most popular leader, Nitish fades away from the political landscape and hence its leaders too believe that their best chance to survive and flourish is to continue to work even more closely with the BJP, even if that means being led by a BJP CM post November 2025, something that has never happened before despite Bihar being the heart-land of the “Hindi belt” and the BJP, for long, being seen as the representative of Hindi belt electorates.
However, the leaders and political observers agree that while BJP’s election strategies often termed as the “Amit Shah school of election management” helped it come to power in Delhi where it was not dominant for years, the same result would be difficult, if not impossible, to replicate in Bihar.
In the last election the BJP contested on 110 seats, winning 74 of it in comparison to the extremely poor performance of the JDU, which despite contesting on more seats (115), could only win on 43 of them. This seat sharing agreement is likely to change this time, with the BJP getting more seats to contest on.
In Delhi, the election was fought more on governance or the lack of it and freebies.
Bihar, on the other hand, has deeply entrenched caste-based voting, making electoral outcomes more dependent on alliances and caste arithmetic rather than just governance narratives.
While BJP leaders talked about the misgovernance and alleged corruption by AAP leaders, it was the voice of the neutral and unbiased observers that made these issues a part of the political narrative.
The allegations against AAP gained more credibility and became a significant part of the political narrative because they were not just coming from the BJP, but from those who were seen as impartial or independent in their assessments. This made the accusations more influential in shaping public opinion.
Similarly, in Delhi, while the BJP was the principal challenger because of an extremely weakened Congress, in Bihar it is, as of now, a “coalition partner”, always extending support to Nitish to be in power.
Both his supporters and critics accept that the appeal of Kumar has dwindled over years due to multiple reasons and he is at his lowest political peak.
While this is one reason that has enthused the BJP core supporters as this would automatically mean that Kumar will not be the CM if the National Democratic Alliance wins the upcoming election, it is also being seen as a danger sign for independent observers as much of NDA’s ability to come to power will depend, as it historically has, on the success of Nitish Kumar. If he flops, so will the NDA.
A significant difference between the Delhi and the upcoming Bihar elections is the absence of a third strong player in Delhi. In Delhi, the Congress was largely irrelevant, making it a direct BJP vs AAP contest. However, in Bihar, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan and other smaller parties are a formidable force. If votes split due to smaller parties or Chirag Paswan’s moves, it could impact results differently than in Delhi.
In Bihar, the factor of Modi, referred to as the belief and trust for Prime Narendra Modi, is a crucial factor, but local leadership (Nitish Kumar’s credibility vs Tejashwi Yadav’s rising appeal) will be a more decisive factor.
The anti-incumbency factor in Bihar against Nitish Kumar, even though the NDA strategists would publicly like to downplay it, is real and the core BJP voters, observers say, will have to be told that there will be a new CM face post the elections or else the demand for change that hurt the AAP in Delhi, might come at play in Bihar too.
The BJP led NDA, despite trying a lot of permutations and combinations, is yet to find any solution to the Muslim-Yadav voter consolidation, which made the RJD the largest party by the total number of seats (75), vote share (23.11) and total votes (97 lakh) in the last election in the Assembly that has 243 seats in total.
According to the much talked about caste survey report, which was released in September 2023, Yadavs constitute 14.3% of Bihar’s population, and Muslims account for 17.7%, a total of 31%.
At the time, the BJP, which was in opposition, had claimed that the caste survey showed an inflated Yadav-Muslim population which was done on the directions of the RJD. As per the 1931 census, the last time the country’s census had data on castes, the number of Yadavs in Bihar was recorded at 12.7% of the population, and Muslims constituted 14.7%, a total of 27.4%. The phasing away of Nitish Kumar in a dignified, respected manner, a senior Patna based journalist told The Sunday Guardian, will be an important factor that will decide who will become the CM after this election ends, something he said PM Modi too realises.