There are serious strategic implications for India. In some ways, there is an underlying attempt to economically encircle India.
New Delhi: The post-Pahalgam military escalation from Pakistan, in response to India’s calibrated and proportionate strikes on designated terror camps inside Pakistan, unravelled a new geopolitical reality staring squarely at India’s face. While China’s tilt towards Pakistan was not surprising given its longer history of diplomatic support to Islamabad, Ankara’s growing fingerprints on Pakistan’s military inventories used against India is indeed a cause of worry. While Pakistan’s air and land assets that have fronted its defensive and offensive military hardware against India have often borne the “Made in China” mark, it was the Turkish drones, amongst other things, that have changed this equation. Clearly, the geopolitical landscape in Asia is undergoing a significant shift as China, Turkey, and Pakistan forge closer ties. This emerging nexus is driven by shared economic interests, strategic objectives, and a desire to challenge the rise, and recognition, of India as a global power. While China and Pakistan have historically maintained strong bilateral relations, Turkey’s recent strategic pivot towards Beijing and Islamabad signals a deepening alignment with potentially far-reaching consequences for India.
WHAT DRIVES THE CHINA-TURKEY-PAKISTAN ALIGNMENT?
Clearly, economics as a factor stands tall in the new China-Turkey-Pakistan alignment. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a cornerstone of Sino-Pakistani nexus. It provides Pakistan with vital infrastructure investment and links it to China’s western Xinjiang province, enhancing trade and connectivity. Similarly, for Turkey, which has been seeking new markets and investment partners, aligning with China provides this opportunity. This alignment with China also opens up avenues for infrastructure development, energy projects, and defence cooperation for Turkey. Chinese banks, including the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have extended substantial loans over the years to Turkey, which have helped shore up Turkey’s financial position. Ankara and Beijing are also boosting partnerships on energy transition; particularly with an eye on cooperating in the future scramble for rare earths and critical minerals, as also in building nuclear reactors, both conventional and modular, in Turkey.
In the last decade, Turkey-China diplomatic ties have grown stronger, with the relationship being elevated to “strategic cooperation” and Ankara joining China’s ambitious but rather infamous BRI. The China-Turkey bonhomie has largely flourished under Ankara’s “Asia Anew Initiative”, and has outreached to multilateral groupings like the BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) where Beijing plays an outsized role. Despite being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and having been an enthusiastic applicant to the European Union (EU), Turkey’s orbit towards Beijing reflects some amount of strategic failure on the part of the Western alliance too. Geopolitical and geo-economic considerations have led Ankara, over the years, to even temper down its voice against China on the issue of the latter’s handling of the Muslim Uyghur minorities in Xinjiang.
Pakistan and Turkey also share strong defence ties, with Turkey supplying military hardware and technology to Pakistan. China, a key arms supplier to both nations, further cements this trilateral military cooperation. Joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and defence production agreements highlight the growing strategic alignment. Earlier this year, for instance, Pakistan and Turkish forces engaged in a joint exercise at Pakistan’s Special Operations School in Cherat, reportedly, involving two combat teams from Pakistan’s Special Services Group and 36 personnel from Turkey’s Special Forces. In 2023, Beijing had reportedly expressed interest to cooperate with Ankara on defence production and a huge delegation of Chinese companies had attended the International Defence Industry Fair in Istanbul. These companies, reportedly, aim to expand their market share in Turkey’s defence industrial complex, particularly on the transfer of drone technology. In the recent foiled attempts by Pakistan targeting India’s strategic sites and civilian population centres, the reported use of Turkish made drones have send clear signals of Ankara’s unabashed tilt towards Pakistan. Moreover, a Turkish anti-submarine corvette reportedly docked at the Karachi port and a Turkish C-130 Hercules military transport aircraft, landed at the Karachi airport during the height of the India-Pakistan crisis.
In their diplomatic responses as well, China and Turkey clearly stood out, along with Azerbaijan, in their pro-Pakistan tilt and anti-India stance. The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly, “reaffirmed that China, as Pakistan’s All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partner and iron-clad friend, will continue to stand firmly by Pakistan in upholding its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national independence.” This lip service to a figment of diplomatic restraint was not evident in what the Member of Parliament of Turkey’s ruling party AKP, Ali Sahin, said, “This war is an assault on Islamabad—one of Turkey’s frontier outposts—with Ankara as the actual target”
While, China views Pakistan as a strategic counterbalance to India and a gateway to the Indian Ocean, crucial for its Maritime Silk Road ambitions, in President Erdoğan’s worldview, criticism of India and aligning Ankara with Pakistan’s position on Kashmir issue is an integral cog in its endeavour to be seen as a key player in the Muslim world. Pakistan benefits from these alliances by gaining international support against India, particularly regarding Kashmir and India’s “support-to-terrorism” narrative.
INDIA’S STRATEGIC OPTIONS
There are serious strategic implications for India. In some ways, there is an underlying attempt to economically encircle India. CPEC, which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), could pose a strategic challenge to India, potentially acting as another irritant in its territorial sovereignty. Similarly, Turkey’s growing economic ties with China and Pakistan could pose a challenge, especially if combined with Turkey’s opposition to corridors like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Turkey will also try and isolate India in key regional projects, especially in Central Asia and West Asia.
There are a number of options, none of them mutually exclusive, that India should explore:
* For instance, amidst the growing transatlantic schism witnessed as a result of Trump’s tariff salvos aimed at the EU, his disdain for multilateral NATO, and EU’s quest to diversify its partners, New Delhi has a window of opportunities to recalibrate ties with the EU highlighting the urgent imperative to forge a stronger partnership against terrorism and those who harbour or support terror networks.
* India should also deepen strategic ties with key regional players in West Asia like Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia or perhaps even with Iraq to counterbalance Turkey’s influence and secure vital energy routes. Regional wars, political upheavals, regime changes and economic transitions in the region have put major stakeholders on toes, and India cannot be caught napping.
* On its east and in China’s backyard, India should be more pro-active in extracting tangible outcomes from its Act East policy. New Delhi should deepen ties with ASEAN partners, apprising them of the dynamic geopolitics affecting India’s national security interest. Investing in expanding trade partnerships with ASEAN nations can provide economic leverage against the China led troika nexus, especially since some of the ASEAN countries have their own problems with China, would welcome options to diversify ties and not put all its eggs in the Chinese basket.
* On its extended neighbourhood in the west, Central Asian countries provide a fertile ground to augment Indian investments in infrastructure projects. In such efforts, a strategic model of robust public-private partnerships will be crucial to plug into the growing aspirations and influence of Indian conglomerates.
* India’s growing clout in multilateral forums cannot be ignored and it should use forums like the BRICS+ and the SCO to quietly convey its concerns to other members of these organisations. How India handles China in a nuanced manner in such forms will the test on fire for India’s diplomacy. Moreover, India, sooner or later, will have to start a dialogue with China—that will be the only way to establish certain red lines on India’s national security.
* Last but not the least, how India leverages its growing ties with the United States to counteract a China-Turkey-Pakistan alignment will be germane to India’s strategy. In the last two decades, a consequential India-US partnership has evolved, with the China threat becoming the strategic glue. The India-US relationship, in these years, has become extremely comprehensive and multi-pronged, flourishing under different political leaderships on both sides. The two democracies have crucial stakes in multiple sectors, spanning across the defence, economic and security domains, among others. Therefore, India needs an honest and no holds barred dialogue with the United States on its core national security interest. This is the least India can ask from a strategic and major defence partner like the US. This issue can also be discussed at the side-lines of the Quad meetings. While the Quad remains focused on non-military matters, India should express its concerns on the China-Turkey-Pakistan alignment in the upcoming leadership summit.
The China-Turkey-Pakistan nexus is a complex and evolving geopolitical reality. For India, the path forward lies in a calculated combination of economic diplomacy, military preparedness, and strategic alliances to effectively navigate the emerging power dynamics in Asia. Even though it looks like a triple whammy in the making, India’s preparedness, economic power, and strategic foresightedness should be able to address the challenges that the recent crisis has brought to the fore.
* Shishir Priyadarshi is President at Chintan Research Foundation (CRF), New Delhi. Monish Tourangbam is Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation.