NEW DELHI: The sun had barely risen on a calm Wednesday morning in Taiwan when alarms began to sound quietly within the maritime surveillance stations. A seemingly innocuous cruise liner, the Gulangyu, registered in Bermuda but operated from China, sailed unsettlingly close to Taiwan’s Hengchun Peninsula—just two nautical miles from shore.
From the beaches of Pingtung County, Taiwanese residents watched as the vessel loomed unusually near, capturing the tense spectacle on their smartphones. Within hours, the images flooded social media alongside defiant captions proclaiming: “Taiwan is China.”
For Ocean Affairs Council Minister Kuan Bi-ling, this was no benign cruise ship gone astray. Rather, she identified the Gulangyu’s passage as part of China’s broader “grey zone” strategy—a calculated set of coercive actions designed to assert dominance and intimidate regional adversaries without crossing the threshold into open warfare.
Across maritime Asia, such episodes have become increasingly frequent, indicating a sophisticated Chinese playbook that leverages civilian vessels as strategic pawns in geopolitical chess. Taiwan’s unsettling encounter resonates with the experiences of countless Filipino fishermen battling daily harassment from Chinese maritime militia vessels in the contested waters of Scarborough Shoal. These distant yet interconnected events reflect a systematic Chinese effort to rewrite maritime boundaries, not through traditional military conflict, but through persistent, incremental provocations.
Since 2012, Filipino fishermen around Scarborough Shoal have become the face of China’s grey zone campaign in the South China Sea. Chinese Coast Guard ships and civilian militia vessels regularly execute deliberate “blocking formations,” preventing Philippine access to historically rich fishing grounds.
Documented incidents from March 2025 depict aggressive encounters where water cannons severely damaged Filipino civilian boats and Philippine Coast Guard patrol vessels. Economic devastation soon followed, with incomes plunging by approximately 70%, thrusting local communities into overwhelming poverty and spiralling debt cycles.
Legally, these tactics constitute clear violations of international law, specifically the landmark 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA). The court had decisively rejected China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claims, upholding the Philippines’ rights to Scarborough Shoal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Despite this international verdict, China adopted its “Four Nos” policy—no acceptance, participation, recognition, or implementation—revealing its deliberate disregard for global norms.
Beyond the immediate humanitarian crisis, China’s maritime policies have led to severe ecological destruction. Aggressive dredging and illegal clam harvesting practices around Scarborough Shoal have obliterated more than 6,600 hectares of coral reefs, endangering marine biodiversity crucial for sustainable fishing. With reef habitats destroyed, local fish populations have drastically declined, further compounding the hardships for regional fishing communities.
But Scarborough Shoal is merely one piece of a larger puzzle. The Gulangyu’s provocative near-shore cruise off Taiwan and the militarised fishing fleets in the South China Sea form part of a broader Chinese strategy that extends well beyond these localised confrontations. Analysts identify this approach as a sophisticated “civil-military fusion,” a strategy where civilian infrastructures, ranging from cruise ships and fishing fleets to commercial ports, are quietly equipped to support military objectives during crises.
In the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), China’s dual-use infrastructure projects provide stark evidence of these ambitions. Ports such as Djibouti, Gwadar in Pakistan, and Hambantota in Sri Lanka, initially marketed as purely commercial investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), now possess latent military capacities. These strategic nodes serve as logistical lifelines, enhancing China’s naval reach across critical maritime corridors.
China’s approach relies heavily on economic leverage—often described as “debt diplomacy”—to cement its maritime dominance. Nations such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Laos, and several African states have fallen prey to financial arrangements characterised by opaque terms, crippling debt burdens, and limited transparency. Sri Lanka’s 99-year lease of Hambantota Port to China stands as a prominent example, illustrating how economic vulnerabilities can translate into strategic subjugation, giving Beijing control over vital maritime chokepoints.
Such incidents have compelled regional governments and international bodies to reassess their strategic postures. ASEAN’s attempts to finalise a binding Code of Conduct (COC) with China in the South China Sea remain stalled, primarily due to Beijing’s resistance to enforceable terms restricting its maritime militias. Without concrete measures, regional states remain exposed to incremental encroachments that gradually erode their maritime sovereignty.
Taiwan’s recent experience provides valuable lessons for other regional actors grappling with China’s tactics. The island has proactively developed dedicated intelligence and tracking databases to monitor maritime vessels in sensitive areas, coordinating responses with the Maritime and Port Bureau and national security agencies. Such comprehensive frameworks offer viable models for nations facing similar threats, emphasising the importance of robust surveillance, intelligence-sharing, and enhanced regional cooperation.
India has similarly recalibrated its strategic outlook in response to China’s maritime hegemonic ambitions. The country has accelerated naval modernisation, commissioning advanced stealth frigates, submarines, and maritime surveillance systems to enhance its defence capabilities. Concurrent diplomatic engagements through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), involving India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, highlight collective efforts to counterbalance China’s regional influence.
Furthermore, India’s strategic investments in the Iranian port of Chabahar and upgrades in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands aim to establish credible counterweights to China’s maritime expansion. These initiatives enhance India’s regional influence, diversify economic partnerships, and secure essential maritime routes against potential Chinese coercion.
However, addressing China’s grey zone provocations requires more than military readiness; it demands an integrated framework emphasising sustainable maritime governance. Enhancing the enforcement capabilities of international legal mechanisms like UNCLOS, coupled with intensified regional cooperation on fisheries management and ecological conservation, could mitigate China’s coercive capacities.
Empowering local communities is equally essential. Institutionalising legal recognition of traditional fishing rights and providing economic support can alleviate these communities’ vulnerabilities. Integrating civil society groups and fisher associations into regional governance dialogues can ensure these critical voices influence maritime policy, promoting sustainable and inclusive solutions.
The unfolding crisis exemplified by Taiwan’s recent cruise ship incident and Scarborough Shoal’s prolonged harassment stresses the urgent need for collective vigilance, comprehensive strategic responses, and sustainable ecological practices. Maritime tensions reveal a profound truth: preserving regional stability, ecological balance, and human livelihoods hinges on confronting China’s sophisticated yet dangerous grey zone tactics head-on.
As regional states navigate these increasingly troubled waters, international collaboration and adherence to a rules-based order become indispensable. The fates of local fishermen, coastal communities, and broader geopolitical stability are inexorably intertwined.
If left unchecked, China’s grey zone maritime strategies threaten to destabilise an entire region, endangering not only geopolitical stability but also the fundamental rights and survival of millions across maritime Asia.
The international community is now at a pivotal crossroads, confronting a challenge that demands unity, resilience, and unwavering commitment to human dignity and maritime justice.
(Ashish Singh is an award-winning senior journalist with over 18 years of experience in defence and strategic affairs.)