Only two of Pakistan’s five Agosta-class submarines remain operational, with the remaining three docked for extended maintenance.
New Delhi: Operation Sindoor, India’s landmark military operation of 2025, exposed critical vulnerabilities beneath the surface—Pakistan’s submarine fleet now stands compromised, jeopardising its strategic maritime deterrence. Recent satellite imagery, expert analyses, and emerging regional dynamics have only intensified concerns about Islamabad’s undersea capabilities, creating a credibility crisis for the Pakistan Navy.
FLEET ON THE BRINK
Satellite imagery from March 2025 paints an interesting picture: only two of Pakistan’s five Agosta-class submarines (one Agosta-70 and one Agosta-90B) remain operational, with the remaining three docked for extended maintenance at Karachi Shipyard. Critical repairs, including the overhaul of MESMA AIP systems and structural upgrades assisted by Turkey, face repeated delays due to supply-chain disruptions. Alarmingly, one Agosta-90B submarine was observed stranded ashore, signalling severe readiness deficits.
Meanwhile, the next-generation Hangor-class submarines, which are crucial for modernising Pakistan’s fleet, also face uncertainty. Construction on the first two units—PNS Hangor and Shushuk—continues in China, with delivery timelines slipping to late 2025 and 2026, respectively. The local assembly of subsequent units at Karachi Shipyard faces budgetary and liquidity constraints, significantly impacting the timely induction. The slow construction pace of the fifth and sixth Hangor-class submarines at Karachi, initiated in late 2024, highlights these fiscal strains, threatening to extend capability gaps until at least the early 2030s.
NUCLEAR DETERRENCE & SECOND-STRIKE CREDIBILITY
The operational limitations of Pakistan’s submarines profoundly affect its strategic deterrence. Although the Pakistan Navy touts the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) as a cornerstone of its second-strike capability, independent analysts contest its official range of 450 km, suggesting an effective operational range closer to 250 km. This drastically limits strategic utility against inland Indian targets, compromising Pakistan’s deterrence posture.
Moreover, diesel-electric Agosta submarines have limited underwater endurance, typically measured in days rather than the months achievable by nuclear-powered submarines. While the forthcoming Hangor-class could partially mitigate these limitations with improved stealth and endurance, delays in fully operationalising these submarines—and integrating Babur-3 missiles—push Pakistan’s credible nuclear deterrence further into oblivion, undermining its capabilities despite its assurances.
STRATEGIC AND DOCTRINAL ADJUSTMENTS: ATTEMPTING COURSE CORRECTION
In response to the major embarrassment sustained by the Pakistan Navy in Operation Sindoor, Islamabad is reportedly initiating strategic recalibrations. Their navy has emphasised the importance of the Hangor-class submarines, highlighting their anticipated capability to “execute a wider range of operations effectively.” Simultaneously, the navy intensified coastal defence drills in June 2025, deploying anti-submarine warfare (ASW) assets, notably P-3C Orion aircraft and seabed hydrophone networks, to demonstrate a renewed emphasis on protecting critical maritime infrastructure, such as Gwadar and Ormara.
Yet, despite these tactical shifts, Pakistan’s maritime doctrine remains exceptionally wanting. Military commentators, including retired Commander Muhammad Azam Khan, call for overcoming the strategic “sea-blindness” by advocating stronger naval alliances, particularly with China, to counterbalance India’s growing maritime dominance.
INDIA’S EXPANDING ASW DOMINANCE
Contrasting starkly with Pakistan’s struggles, India has decisively accelerated its submarine warfare capabilities since the Sindoor incident. India has just commissioned INS Arnala, its first Anti-Submarine Warfare Shallow Water Craft (ASW-SWC), thereby enhancing coastal defences through indigenous sonar networks and integrated drone surveillance.
Additionally, the Indian Navy deployed advanced autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), which naval experts have termed “game-changers,” leveraging artificial intelligence for real-time submarine threat detection.
Project-75(I), aiming to procure six cutting-edge submarines, is accelerating, bolstered by India’s increasing reliance on indigenous AIP systems. These developments highlight India’s methodical exploitation of Pakistan’s deterrence gaps, significantly shifting the regional balance of maritime power.
GEOPOLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS
The regional geopolitical landscape has undergone significant shifts. China, Pakistan’s main naval supplier, faces reputational damage following Operation Sindoor, particularly as Chinese-supplied air defences (HQ-9/16) dramatically underperformed. Despite continuing the Hangor-class deliveries, China now cautiously withholds advanced subsystems, such as sophisticated sonars, due to unresolved financial disputes, deepening Pakistan’s technological dependency.Conversely, the US and Quad nations have actively leveraged this crisis, intensifying naval collaborations with India. Initiatives such as the ASIA alliance, comprising Indian firm Sagar Defence and Boeing’s Liquid Robotics, aim to monitor critical Arabian Sea chokepoints using advanced drone technologies. The Gulf states, while publicly cautious, are increasingly wary of security gaps exposed around Gwadar port, complicating Pakistan’s strategic calculus regarding CPEC’s maritime security.
TURKEY’S ROLE
An often-overlooked aspect has been Turkey’s recent significant, yet indirect, military support to Pakistan, which has implications for regional maritime dynamics. While Ankara refrained from overt naval combat engagement in support of Islamabad, its actions nonetheless signalled diplomatic alignment and strategic partnership with Islamabad.Turkey notably supplied Pakistan with between 300 to 400 advanced Turkish-made drones, including the Bayraktar TB2 and Asisguard Songar models. These drones were employed extensively against Indian military and civilian infrastructure throughout the conflict. Turkish military operatives reportedly played a direct role in advising and coordinating these strikes, underscoring a strategic depth of involvement beyond mere equipment supply.While Turkey maintained no direct naval combat role, the deployment of its naval corvette, TCG Buyukada (F-512), to Karachi port around the height of Operation Sindoor triggered diplomatic unease. Officially described by Turkey as a “routine goodwill visit,” the docking was portrayed by Pakistan as a sign of explicit diplomatic solidarity. Indian officials, however, perceived the presence as deliberate military signalling, reflecting Turkey’s strategic posture in support of Islamabad.Turkey’s nuanced involvement underscores the growing complexity of geopolitical entanglements surrounding Indo-Pacific maritime security. While direct naval combat support remained absent, Turkey’s symbolic and logistical contributions significantly impacted the regional perception of Pakistan’s military posture, complicating South Asia’s maritime stability equations in Sindoor’s strategic aftermath.
FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS
Pakistan’s undersea deterrence crisis is compounded by acute financial pressures. Despite a significant 18% increase in its 2025-26 defence budget to Rs 2.5 trillion, naval modernisation—particularly the $5 billion Hangor programme—is increasingly untenable.Foreign exchange shortages and spiralling external debt have caused repeated construction delays at Karachi Shipyard, disrupting scheduled submarine inductions and severely constraining the broader development of maritime capabilities. These budgetary constraints risk cementing Pakistan’s naval vulnerabilities well beyond the immediate future, limiting strategic flexibility and operational preparedness through at least the coming decade.
NAVIGATING TROUBLED WATERS
The undersea deterrence crisis, starkly magnified by Operation Sindoor, places Pakistan at a precarious crossroads. With its submarine fleet critically depleted, nuclear second-strike capabilities in doubt, and financial pressures constraining rapid remediation, Islamabad faces prolonged strategic vulnerability.
Simultaneously, India capitalises on this opportunity, significantly enhancing its undersea warfare capabilities and solidifying a formidable regional advantage. Ultimately, as both nations recalibrate maritime doctrines and capabilities, the Indo-Pacific faces intensified strategic competition beneath its waters—a maritime chessboard where stealth, endurance, and financial resilience determine regional stability for years to come.
Ashish Singh is an award-winning senior journalist with over 18 years of experience in defence and strategic affairs.